710
FXUS65 KPSR 311720
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2025
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WE REMAIN STUCK IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO DRIVE ANY
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. AS A RESULT, OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MODEST RIDGING LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY EVEN THROUGH
ALL OF NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD GO THROUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF ENHANCED
RIDGING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT, BUT THAT WILL HARDLY
CHANGE TEMPERATURES. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AND DAILY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS STATED ABOVE, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT FOR OUR
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY LONGER. FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 584-588DM, OR RIGHT
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR OUR REGION, THERE SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DRY WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, ONE ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME MOSTLY THIN
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION, THESE SYSTEMS WILL
LARGELY PASS BY WITHOUT MUCH NOTICE. FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN LATER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS FALLING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE SUSPECT
GIVEN FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS MAY ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 582-585DM.
EITHER WAY, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY WESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1720Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH EXTENDED PERIODS
OF CALM AND VRB CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES
IS PROJECTED TO FILTER DOWN INTO SOUTHECENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPORARY SLANTWISE VIS REDUCTIONS.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, BUT
REMAIN AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINRHS
WILL BE AROUND 10-15% FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TO AROUND 20% FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 20-
40%. WINDS WILL FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH MINIMAL
AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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