913
FXUS65 KPSR 010820
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 AM MST SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CHARGE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY BEFORE THEY
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER UPWARD INTO SUNDAY AS H5 HEIGHTS BRIEFLY PEAK
BETWEEN 587-589DM (WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE). DESPITE THE
BUMP IN HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY INCREASE ANOTHER 1-2
DEGREES INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERTS TO AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT FOR OUR REGION THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LONGER. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT
SOME BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL H5 HEIGHTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 583-587DM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
WITHIN A 86-89 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
ON MONDAY, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN LATER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY FALLING BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE COOL DOWN IS STILL SOMEWHAT
LOW GIVEN FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS MAY ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 582-585DM.
EITHER WAY, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0820Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW LIGHT AND DIURNAL
TENDENCIES WITH EXTENDED WINDOW OF VARIABLE TO EVEN CALM
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, BUT
REMAIN AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINRHS
WILL BE AROUND 10-15% FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TO AROUND 20% FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 20-
40%. WINDS WILL FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH MINIMAL
AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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