284
FXUS65 KPSR 021700
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH ITS PEAK OF 588-589DM H5 HEIGHTS
TODAY, LIKELY HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SITUATED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
TO BRING SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY,
BUT LITTLE IF ANY COOLING THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS MOSTLY RANGING BETWEEN 86-90 DEGREES FOR
TODAY AND MONDAY. STARTING TUESDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE A
SUBTLE SHIFT AND FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW COOLING TREND, FIRST SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WILL LARGELY BE A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY DRY FLOW,
BUT IT WILL SHIFT MORE INTO A ZONAL FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WILL HELP TO LOWER OUR HEIGHTS SOME PUSHING H5 HEIGHTS MORE INTO A
582-585DM RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING
DAYTIME HIGHS FALLING BACK TOWARD THE NORMAL RANGE (81-83F)
STARTING THURSDAY, BUT LIKELY STAYING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA
SHOULD STAY BELOW 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS, GENERALLY AOB 8 KTS, WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES
WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABILITY TO NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL MOSTLY
RANGE BETWEEN 10-15% THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO 15-20%
LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ALSO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY FROM 20-40% CURRENTLY TO 30-50% BY MIDWEEK. A FEW DRY
WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION MAY TEMPORARILY
ELEVATE WINDS BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW
DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH MINIMAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK/KUHLMAN
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