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FXUS65 KPSR 022315
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
415 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY COOL FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY INTO THE MID 80S BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATEST MID-LVL WV IMAGERY AND 500 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. H5 HGHTS
HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 590-591 DAM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AZ WHICH HAS
HELPED BOOST HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH IS 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER. A DRY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON MONDAY. UPPER-LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS, MID-LVL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY AND THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN FORECASTED TO REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
MOST LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES. ON TUESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE A SUBTLE
SHIFT AND FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 500 MB HGHTS TO AROUND 585-587 DAM. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME MODEST COOLING BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS, HOWEVER SOUTHCENTRAL AZ WILL STILL SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT
THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WILL LARGELY BE A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY DRY FLOW,
BUT IT WILL SHIFT MORE INTO A ZONAL FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
HELP TO LOWER OUR HEIGHTS SOME PUSHING H5 HEIGHTS MORE INTO A
582-585DM RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING
DAYTIME HIGHS FALLING BACK TOWARD THE NORMAL RANGE (81-83F)
STARTING THURSDAY, BUT LIKELY STAYING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA
SHOULD STAY BELOW 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2315Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW LIGHT
AND DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTERNOON
MINRHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10-15% THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE
IMPROVING TO AROUND 15-20% LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL ALSO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FROM 20-40% CURRENTLY TO 30-50% BY
MIDWEEK. A FEW DRY WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION MAY
TEMPORARILY ELEVATE WINDS OVER THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL BE FOLLOW DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO/KUHLMAN
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