793
FXUS65 KPSR 031708
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1008 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
UPDATE...UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY COOL FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES EARLY THIS WEEK INTO THE MID
80S BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR A CHANGE, WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO LAST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY, BUT THEY WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE AND TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING. H5 HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
STABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY RANGING BETWEEN 585-588DM, OR WELL INTO
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIP IN
READINGS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE BUT
WEAKENING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR
OUR REGION, IT WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS TO THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS TO 582-585DM STARTING THURSDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BY THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS DROPPING MORE INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. QUASI-ZONAL DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STABLE AT 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE
MAY EVENTUALLY SEE A BRIEF 1-2 DAYS OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVE INTO
OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN WITH THE CHANCES
OF REACHING 90 DEGREES CURRENTLY AT 20-30%. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
THEN SHOWS SOME SORT OF TROUGH POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SO FAR IT LOOKS TO
BE FAIRLY DRY AND MAY NOT BRING ANY RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1705Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS DECKS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS AOB 7 KTS ALONG WITH
EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE TO CALM CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
10-15% THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE IMPROVING TO AROUND 15-20% LATER IN
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ALSO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FROM
20-40% CURRENTLY TO 30-50% BY MIDWEEK. A FEW DRY WEATHER SYSTEMS
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION MAY TEMPORARILY ELEVATE WINDS OVER THE
AZ HIGH TERRAIN BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE FOLLOW DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO/KUHLMAN
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