942
FXUS65 KPSR 040836
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
136 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THIS WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY COOL FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY TO THE MID 80S BY THE
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIRLY ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CONUS WITH A FLATTENED RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION, KEEPING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ALSO QUITE DRY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH PWATS HOVERING
AROUND 75% OF NORMAL. AS FAR AS WHAT THAT TRANSLATES TO FOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS, IT WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES,
OR 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, VERY
LITTLE WILL CHANGE. INITIALLY, A PASSING TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH
WILL AT LEAST SUPPRESS THE RIDGE IN PLACE LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS FROM
THE CURRENT 587-589DM TO 584-586DM BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO SHIFT ITS HIGH CENTER TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE BRIEF DIP IN HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 83-86 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT
LAST VERY LONG AS THE RIDGE NOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP BACK TOWARD THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
SWINGING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THIS FIRST WEATHER FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND
NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT A
POTENTIAL SECOND FOLLOW-ON SYSTEM MAY BE DIFFERENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK AS IT COULD END
UP BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND STAY TO OUR WEST, OR IT
COULD MOVE ON THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM. MODELS DO
AT LEAST INDICATE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST
RAIN CHANCES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF ARIZONA BY AROUND NEXT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK CLOSER TO
THE NORMAL RANGE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0455Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH
SPEEDS AOB 7 KTS ALONG WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE TO CALM
CONDITIONS. THE USUAL W'RLY SHIFT FOR METRO PHOENIX TERMINALS
DOES NOT APPEAR CERTAIN AT THIS TIME WITH DIRECTIONS POTENTIALLY
MAINTAINING AN E'RLY COMPONENT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER, IF THIS W'RLY SHIFT TO BE SEEN, IT WOULD BE
BRIEF AND MOST LIKELY OCCUR AT KIWA. HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS AROUND 15% MIDWEEK WILL RISE
CLOSER TO 20% LATER IN THE WEEK WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF
30-50%. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS, AND WILL
TEND TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
PATTERN WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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