446
FXUS65 KPSR 041700
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THIS WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
COOL FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY TO THE MID 80S BY THE THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIRLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CONUS WITH A FLATTENED RIDGE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION, KEEPING HEIGHTS ALOFT ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO
QUITE DRY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH PWATS HOVERING AROUND 75%
OF NORMAL. AS FAR AS WHAT THAT TRANSLATES TO FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS,
IT WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES, OR 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, VERY LITTLE
WILL CHANGE. INITIALLY, A PASSING TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL AT
LEAST SUPPRESS THE RIDGE IN PLACE LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS FROM THE
CURRENT 587-589DM TO 584-586DM BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO SHIFT ITS HIGH CENTER TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE BRIEF DIP IN HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
TO BETWEEN 83-86 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE RIDGE NOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
MOVE OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY CREEP BACK TOWARD THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
SWINGING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THIS FIRST WEATHER FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND
NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT A
POTENTIAL SECOND FOLLOW-ON SYSTEM MAY BE DIFFERENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK AS IT COULD END
UP BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND STAY TO OUR WEST, OR IT
COULD MOVE ON THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM. MODELS DO
AT LEAST INDICATE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST
RAIN CHANCES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF ARIZONA BY AROUND NEXT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK CLOSER TO
THE NORMAL RANGE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A
FEW HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. WINDS WILL BEHAVE SIMILARLY TO THE PAST 24
HOURS INCLUDING SPEEDS UNDER 10KT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIRECTIONS
NEVER FULLY ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PHX
TERMINALS, BUT RATHER OBTAINING ONLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE CHARACTER
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS AROUND 15% MIDWEEK WILL RISE
CLOSER TO 20% LATER IN THE WEEK WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 30-
50%. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS, AND WILL TEND TO
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN WITH
LIMITED AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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