176
FXUS65 KPSR 050805
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
105 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- EXPECT DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE A
DECAYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT
COOLING. TODAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE 'COOLEST' DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, OR AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AND SOME
PASSING THIN HIGH CLOUDS, OUR WEATHER WILL NOT CHANGE. ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS BY FRIDAY
WILL END THE COOLING TREND WITH READINGS BEGINNING TO TREND UPWARD
AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE FIRST REBUILDING TO OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING FULLY INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
AND STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY. FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS
ARE SHOWN TO RISE TO AS HIGH AS 588-590DM ON MONDAY REACHING INTO
THE 97TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL
LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRAIL OFF AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR
SUNDAY-TUESDAY WOULD PUT US WITHIN REACH OF TYING OR EVEN POSSIBLY
BREAKING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OVER
THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY EVEN MONDAY BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
LIKELY START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
SHOULD BECOME VERY PROMINENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO
BE A NON-FACTOR FOR OUR REGION AS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
IT FIZZLING OUT AS IT MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM IS THEN LIKELY TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FIRST WITH A DEEP LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DIG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR REGION
AT SOME POINT BETWEEN FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY A GOOD COOL DOWN, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE LEVELS WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BETTER THAN THE FIRST,
BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THE TRACK OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TO KNOW WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN OUR REGION MAY SEE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0800Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD EXIST TODAY UNDER A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
DECKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW LIGHT AND DIURNAL TRENDS BUT
A FULL W'RLY SHIFT ONCE AGAIN LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR METRO PHOENIX
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VRB TO EVEN CALM CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE TYPICAL WINDOW WHEN W'RLY WINDS ARE
OBSERVED.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE VERY MARGINALLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MINRHS ITCHING CLOSE TO 20%,
WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR AT 40-60%. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS, AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW A
TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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