279
FXUS65 KPSR 051707
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE A
DECAYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT
COOLING. TODAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
THURSDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE 'COOLEST' DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, OR AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AND SOME PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS, OUR WEATHER WILL NOT CHANGE. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS BY FRIDAY WILL END THE COOLING TREND WITH
READINGS BEGINNING TO TREND UPWARD AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE FIRST REBUILDING TO OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING FULLY INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
AND STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY. FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS ARE
SHOWN TO RISE TO AS HIGH AS 588-590DM ON MONDAY REACHING INTO THE
97TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRAIL OFF AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY
WOULD PUT US WITHIN REACH OF TYING OR EVEN POSSIBLY BREAKING DAILY
RECORD HIGHS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OVER THE WEEKEND AND
PROBABLY EVEN MONDAY BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY START TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING SHOULD
BECOME VERY PROMINENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEFORE MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BE A NON-FACTOR
FOR OUR REGION AS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IT FIZZLING OUT AS
IT MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, A SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM IS THEN LIKELY TO FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FIRST WITH A DEEP LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DIG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR REGION AT SOME POINT
BETWEEN FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY A GOOD COOL DOWN, BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BETTER THAN THE FIRST, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THE TRACK OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO KNOW WHEN
AND HOW MUCH RAIN OUR REGION MAY SEE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1705Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE LACK OF A DEFINITIVE
WESTERLY SHIFT AROUND THE PHX METRO AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF NEARLY
CALM CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE VERY MARGINALLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MINRHS ITCHING CLOSE TO 20%, WHILE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR AT 40-60%. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS, AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL
DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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