533
FXUS65 KPSR 052011
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A PROGRESSIVE, LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CONUS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PROVIDING A REGIONAL EXTENSION OF THE
ONGOING QUIET, DRY WEATHER REGIME. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATING INLAND TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL ACT TO DAMPEN SW CONUS
MIDTROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING H5
VALUES DECREASING FROM AROUND 588DM INTO A 582-585DM RANGE IN DRY
WESTERLY FLOW. AS EXPECTED, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SPREADS ARE EXTREMELY
NARROW ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, YET
STILL 2F-6F ABOVE THE DAILY NORMALS. THIS INNOCUOUS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING WILL
CREATE A PATTERN EVOLVING INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE REGIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK YIELDING HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RIDGE FIRST REBUILDING TO OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE FULLY MOVING
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY, AND STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY.
FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE AS HIGH AS 588-590DM ON
MONDAY, AND REACHING INTO THE 97TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. THESE
HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRAIL OFF
AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WOULD PUT US WITHIN REACH OF TYING OR
EVEN POSSIBLY BREAKING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR OVER THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY EVEN MONDAY BEFORE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS LIKELY START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING SHOULD
BECOME VERY PROMINENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEFORE MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BE A NON-FACTOR
FOR OUR REGION AS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IT FIZZLING OUT AS
IT MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, A SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM IS THEN LIKELY TO FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FIRST WITH A DEEP LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DIG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR REGION AT SOME POINT
BETWEEN FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY A GOOD COOL DOWN, BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BETTER THAN THE FIRST, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THE TRACK OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO KNOW WHEN
AND HOW MUCH RAIN OUR REGION MAY SEE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1705Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE LACK OF A DEFINITIVE
WESTERLY SHIFT AROUND THE PHX METRO AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF NEARLY
CALM CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE VERY MARGINALLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MINRHS ITCHING CLOSE TO 20%, WHILE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR AT 40-60%. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS, AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL
DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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