522
FXUS65 KPSR 060847
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
147 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH RIDGING STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THE PASSING TROUGH DID HELP TO BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION AND IT HAS FLATTENED OUT THE
RIDGE SOMEWHAT. SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS IN THE MID
80S ACROSS STILL EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
MORE LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT LESS BORING OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AS
RIDGING WILL STILL BE OUR DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND WITH A
DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS AND A
HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER OUR REGION INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE FULLY MOVING OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT STEADY BETWEEN
582-586DM THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RISING ON SUNDAY AND PEAKING ON
MONDAY BETWEEN 587-590DM. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY
EVEN TIE OR BREAK A DAILY HIGH.
THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A DEEP
TROUGH TO SET UP WEST OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MISS OUR REGION AS
IT SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT
DISSIPATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION AND ONCE AGAIN
FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT COOLING. EVENTUALLY, A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROUGH
AND THIS ONE MAY END UP BRINGING MORE NOTICEABLE WEATHER INTO OUR
REGION. THE TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING CLOSER OR
EVEN INTO OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT NEXT NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL PROBABLY FALLING AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL
W'RLY SHIFT SETTING UP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
METRO PHOENIX TERMINALS. OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
DECKS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE VERY MARGINALLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MINRHS ITCHING CLOSE TO 20%, WHILE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR AT 40-60%. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS, AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL
DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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