105
FXUS65 KPSR 061701
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH RIDGING STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
STATES. THE PASSING TROUGH DID HELP TO BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION AND IT HAS FLATTENED OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
TODAY AND FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS STILL EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND MORE LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT LESS BORING OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AS
RIDGING WILL STILL BE OUR DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE FLOW PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
FULLY MOVING OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT STEADY BETWEEN 582-586DM THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE RISING ON SUNDAY AND PEAKING ON MONDAY BETWEEN 587-
590DM. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO
90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WOULD BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY EVEN TIE OR BREAK A DAILY
HIGH.
THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH
TO SET UP WEST OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MISS OUR REGION AS IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT DISSIPATES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDS
INTO OUR REGION AND ONCE AGAIN FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO SOME
SLIGHT COOLING. EVENTUALLY, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROUGH AND THIS ONE MAY END UP BRINGING MORE
NOTICEABLE WEATHER INTO OUR REGION. THE TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
TROUGH MOVING CLOSER OR EVEN INTO OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. ANY
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT NEXT
NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL PROBABLY FALLING AT SOME
POINT NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, A DISTINCT
AFTERNOON WESTERLY SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR AT THE PHX TERMINALS, ALBEIT
WITH ONLY LIGHT SPEEDS AND TEMPORALLY LIMITED INTO THE MID EVENING.
WINDS ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA WILL FAVOR A LIGHT W/NW COMPONENT WITH
EXTENDED PERIODS OF NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE VERY MARGINALLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MINRHS ITCHING CLOSE TO 20%, WHILE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR AT 40-60%. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS, AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL
DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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