397
FXUS65 KPSR 062317
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
417 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
UPDATE...UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A LOW AMPLITUDE, QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
WELL REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS CONFIGURATION PLACES ARIZONA UNDER STRONG ANTI-
CYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEARLY STEADY IN A 582-585DM
RANGE. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THIS STABLE PATTERN YIELDS EXCELLENT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF A NEAR PERSISTENCE VARIETY AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER 3F-6F ABOVE THE DAILY NORMALS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DOWNSTREAM NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING TO TRANSITION THE CONUS PATTERN
INTO A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE PHASE WITH PRONOUNCED RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS AND A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING SUNDAY, THEN PEAKING
ON MONDAY BETWEEN 587-590DM. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY EVEN TIE
OR BREAK DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH
TO SET UP WEST OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MISS OUR REGION AS IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT DISSIPATES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDS
INTO OUR REGION AND ONCE AGAIN FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO SOME
SLIGHT COOLING. EVENTUALLY, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROUGH AND THIS ONE MAY END UP BRINGING MORE
NOTICEABLE WEATHER INTO OUR REGION. THE TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
TROUGH MOVING CLOSER OR EVEN INTO OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. ANY
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT NEXT
NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL PROBABLY FALLING AT SOME
POINT NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2315Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT THE PHX TERMINALS, A LIGHT DIURNAL
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE
AND CALM CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE SE CALIFORNIA TERMINALS, WINDS
WILL FAVOR A LIGHT WEST TO NORTH COMPONENT WITH EXTENDED PERIODS
OF VARIABLE AND CALM CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE VERY MARGINALLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MINRHS ITCHING CLOSE TO 20%, WHILE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR AT 40-60%. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS, AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL
DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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