989
FXUS65 KPSR 222132
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
232 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL,
TO THE REGION TODAY.
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, AND GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST, AND MOVING NEWARDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BRING ON/OFF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING
IN SW AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING AN
ADDITIONAL 0.2-0.5" SINCE MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LOW OVER THE BAJA
COAST, INCREASED MOISTURE, INTRODUCED FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER,
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY WITH PWATS
AROUND 0.7-1.0". THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HOWEVER DRIER
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ WITH PWATS OF
0.4-0.7", BUT NOT FOR LONG AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ BY THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL INCREASE PWATS TO
~0.8-1.00". THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
VORTICITY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ BY MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
TIMING FOR MORE STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ (INCLUDING
THE PHOENIX METRO) CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, AND DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO OUR NE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 0.00-0.30" OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AZ THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
ACTIVITY DWINDLING DOWN BY THE EVENING. IN THE HIGHER TERRAINS AND
GILA COUNTY CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 0.3-0.6" OF PRECIPITATION
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, STARTING EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM FINISHES ITS JOURNEY ACROSS OUR
REGION, WHERE AFTERWARDS PWATS LOOK TO DROP AND DRY BACK OUT TO
MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS.
NOW LETS TALK TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY
SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES EAST OF SW AZ, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY FORECASTED IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
CENTRAL AZ AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. BY TOMORROW THE LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AZ, RESULTING IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF CENTRAL AZ AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK CALM, DRY, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 574-577 DM ON MONDAY SLOWLY RISING TO AROUND
578-581 DM BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AND GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON MONDAY AND RISING
TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S RISING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ADDITIONALLY
MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY
GOOD THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS COMING WORKWEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1750Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 6-7 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL LOWER EVEN FARTHER LATE TONIGHT, WITH
AT LEAST A 40-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHRA WILL ARRIVE EARLY
THIS EVENING (AROUND 00Z-02Z) WHICH WILL PROMOTE REDUCTIONS IN
VSBYS TO AROUND 5-6 SM. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE ESE AS THE RAINFALL ARRIVES THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY AT KIPL WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 7-8 KFT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY AT KIPL AND W-SW AT KBLH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN DISTRICTS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS TO ALL DISTRICTS. WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MINRHS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE 40-75% RANGE WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF
80-100%. ON MONDAY THE MINRH DROPS SLIGHTLY TO 40-60%, BUT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THIS COMING WORKWEEK. MINRHS
DROP TO 30-50% ON TUESDAY AND THEN 25-35% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 50-70%. LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, THOUGH WEAKER
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MORE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/BERISLAVICH
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