637
FXUS65 KPSR 222305
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST, AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BRING ON/OFF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN
SW AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING AN
ADDITIONAL 0.2-0.5" SINCE MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LOW OVER THE BAJA
COAST, INCREASED MOISTURE, INTRODUCED FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER,
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY WITH PWATS AROUND
0.7-1.0". THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ HOWEVER DRIER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ WITH PWATS OF 0.4-
0.7", BUT NOT FOR LONG AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MOVE
INTO CENTRAL AZ BY THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL INCREASE PWATS TO ~0.8-
1.00". THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE VORTICITY
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ BY MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST TIMING FOR MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ (INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO) CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT, AND DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO OUR NE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 0.00-0.30" OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
DWINDLING DOWN BY THE EVENING. IN THE HIGHER TERRAINS AND GILA
COUNTY CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 0.3-0.6" OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, STARTING EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM FINISHES ITS JOURNEY ACROSS OUR REGION, WHERE
AFTERWARDS PWATS LOOK TO DROP AND DRY BACK OUT TO MORE NORMAL
CONDITIONS.
NOW LETS TALK TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
SE CA AND SW AZ THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OUT THERE WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES EAST OF SW AZ, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE, TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL, WITH HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
FORECASTED IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ
WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF CENTRAL AZ AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. BY TOMORROW
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AZ, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF CENTRAL AZ AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK CALM, DRY, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 574-577 DM ON MONDAY SLOWLY RISING TO AROUND
578-581 DM BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AND GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON MONDAY AND RISING
TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S RISING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ADDITIONALLY
MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY
GOOD THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS COMING WORKWEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2305Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE VSBY MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO A MVFR RANGE WITH ERRATIC WINDS AND CIGS FALLING NEAR 6K FT.
TIMING SPECIFIC CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY CARRIES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER TRENDS SUGGEST CIGS NEARING OR FALLING BELOW 060
OVERNIGHT, THEN POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH MVFR AROUND SUNRISE WITH
ANY MORE PERSISTENT SHRA NEAR THE UPPER COLD CORE. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE THAT CIGS WILL HOVER JUST BELOW 6K FT THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY IMPROVING IN THE EVENING. WHILE EAST WINDS
WILL BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHRA/TSRA MAY
CREATE ERRATIC DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER
CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT WEST WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS EVENING WITH
050-070 CIGS LIFTING AND SCATTERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL
CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LESS THAN 10%
CHANCE OF HZ/FG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO CONSIDERING IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE
W/NW TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING S/SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH PROLONGED
PERIODS OF NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DISTRICTS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A DECENT
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS TO ALL DISTRICTS. WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MINRHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40-75%
RANGE WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 80-100%. ON MONDAY THE
MINRH DROPS SLIGHTLY TO 40-60%, BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN
EXCELLENT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THIS COMING WORKWEEK. MINRHS DROP TO 30-50% ON TUESDAY AND THEN 25-
35% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF
50-70%. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, THOUGH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MORE COMMON THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/BERISLAVICH
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