572
FXUS65 KPSR 230512
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED TO BRING ON/OFF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN SW AZ
AND IMPERIAL COUNTY WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 0.2-
0.5" SINCE MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST, INCREASED
MOISTURE, INTRODUCED FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS SW AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY WITH PWATS AROUND 0.7-1.0".
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ, DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
PWATS OF 0.4-0.7", BUT NOT FOR LONG AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL INCREASE
PWATS TO ~0.8-1.00". THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE VORTICITY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ BY MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST TIMING FOR MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ (INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO) CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT, AND DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
PHOENIX METRO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION TO OUR NE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
0.00-0.30" OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY DWINDLING DOWN BY THE
EVENING. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND GILA COUNTY, AN ADDITIONAL 0.3-
0.6" OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
FINISHES ITS JOURNEY ACROSS OUR REGION, WHERE AFTERWARDS PWATS LOOK
TO DROP AND DRY BACK OUT TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY SUNDAY, AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES EAST
OF SW AZ, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ, WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
CENTRAL AZ AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. BY TOMORROW, THE LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AZ RESULTING IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF CENTRAL AZ AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK CALM, DRY, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 574-577 DM ON MONDAY SLOWLY RISING TO AROUND
578-581 DM BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AND GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON MONDAY AND RISING
TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S RISING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ADDITIONALLY
MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY
GOOD THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS COMING WORKWEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0510Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SHRA WHERE
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO A MVFR RANGE WITH ERRATIC WINDS AND CIGS
GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW 6K FT, AND POTENTIALLY BELOW 3K FT FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SCATTERED SHRA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
CONCENTRATED BATCH OF RA RESULTING IN CIGS AND VSBY FLIRTING WITH
MVFR THRESHOLDS AROUND SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL HOVER JUST BELOW 6K FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING IN THE EARLY EVENING.
WHILE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED THROUGH TONIGHT, SHRA MAY
CREATE ERRATIC DIRECTIONS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT WEST
WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON AS SHRA EXIT EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DRYING CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT
POCKETS OF CIGS 070-100 WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING CLEAR INTO THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITIES OF HZ/FG DEVELOPMENT EXIST AROUND SUNRISE, HOWEVER
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO CONSIDERING IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS
WILL LARGELY BE W/NW TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING S/SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH PROLONGED PERIODS OF NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DISTRICTS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A DECENT
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS TO ALL DISTRICTS. WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MINRHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40-75%
RANGE WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 80-100%. ON MONDAY THE
MINRH DROPS SLIGHTLY TO 40-60%, BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN
EXCELLENT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THIS COMING WORKWEEK. MINRHS DROP TO 30-50% ON TUESDAY AND THEN 25-
35% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF
50-70%. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, THOUGH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MORE COMMON THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/BERISLAVICH
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