158
FXUS65 KPSR 231302
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THIS UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, THEN GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS MORNING REVEAL A CLOSED LOW OVER THE STATE OF AZ, WITH
THE 500MB LOW CENTER JUST SW OF THE PHOENIX METRO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
EXIT THE STATE OF AZ BY THIS EVENING. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION CAUSING AN INCREASE IN PWATS TO 0.7-0.8" ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AZ. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE, SOME BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS SE
CA WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN AZ INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE CENTER (COLD-CORE) OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH
OUR AREA, SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.00-0.25" ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND UP TO 0.5-0.60" ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL IN THE REGION TODAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW IS ALREADY EAST OF CA, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER OVER THERE WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS SE CA AND
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION
RESULTING IN DRY AND OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL GO FROM 567-570 DM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 576-579DM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY, BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SE CA AND SW AZ, THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ, AND THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE THING THAT WE'LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ON MONDAY IS AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
MORNING. WITH THE LOW EAST OF THE REGION, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE ON
THE GROUND FROM ALL THE RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, IT WILL
BE A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK RISING TO A
582-585 DM RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THESE RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND THEN GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN, BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING LOWS WILL GO FROM THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
MORNING LOWS WILL GO FROM THE LOW 40S ON TUESDAY TO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS START TO DIFFER ON THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEY ALL SHOW A DEEP TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
REGION BY SOME POINT EITHER DURING THE WEEKEND OR EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING. THEY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING DOWN INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND NOT MOVE DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND THEN MOVE INLAND LIKE THIS LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DID.
WITH THIS TROUGH LOOKING LIKE IT WILL NOT BE COMING FROM THE
PACIFIC OCEAN THE SYSTEM WON'T BE BRINGING A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. PWATS CURRENTLY LOOK TO ONLY RISE TO A 0.5-0.7" RANGE.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, HOWEVER, IT LIKELY WON'T BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND A WEEK
OUT AND EMSEMBLE MEMBERS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT THINGS CAN CHANGE,
SO BE SURE TO KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1250Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FULLY
EXITING THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT LEAD TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD WILL BE LOW CIGS. CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LIFT TO A
7-10 KFT RANGE. HOWEVER, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO A 4-6 KFT
RANGE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME. THESE LOWER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY CLEARING
THIS EVENING. WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING, WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AOB 6 KT. WINDS WILL FAVOR AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE GOING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN GO BACK E'RLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DRYING CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT
POCKETS OF CIGS 7-10 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING, BECOMING CLEAR BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITIES OF HZ/FG DEVELOPMENT EXIST AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO CONSIDER IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE. WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 5 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ
TODAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DISTRICTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AND END BY
THIS EVENING. MINRHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40-75%
RANGE WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 80-100%. DRY AND
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WORKWEEK. TOMORROW THE MINRH DROPS SLIGHTLY
TO 40-60%, BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. MINRHS DROP TO 30-50% ON TUESDAY AND THEN 25-35% FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 50-70%.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
THOUGH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MORE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/18
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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