646
FXUS65 KPSR 270943
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
243 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- A FAST MOVING AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY YIELDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
BUT WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME INFLUENCE IN THE WAY OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED 800 MILES TO
THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, BUT WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TODAY TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS (DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS) WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY CLEARING
OUT LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY WITH
BROAD TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY COOL OFF A DEGREE OR TWO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK/
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER IS SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS THE EXPECTED WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOW LIKELY TO
MOVE MORE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, BUT NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND AWAY FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE
GEFS AND EPS SHOW SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT QPF (LESS THAN 0.10")
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX, BUT LITTLE IF
ANYTHING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NBM POPS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH CHANCES NOW LESS THAN 10% IN THE PHOENIX AREA TO AT
MOST 10-15% OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. THE TROUGH
SHOULD AT LEAST LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER STARTING MONDAY,
BUT MODELS ARE NOW ALSO LIMITING THE COOLING TO AT MOST DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS QUITE LOW
AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A
POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW SETTING UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO HANDLE AND IT IS UNKNOWN
AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH AND WHEN THIS POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW WOULD
IMPACT OUR REGION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0540Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER THICKENING
HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. E/NE WINDS WILL BE LARGELY PREDOMINANT AROUND
PHOENIX, HOWEVER SOME VARIABILITY OR A LIGHT W/NW COMPONENT SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET. AT THE SE CALIFORNIA TERMINALS, A LIGHT N/NW
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREFERRED.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
MINRHS BETWEEN 25-35% EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES REMAINING GOOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AND
FOLLOW THEIR NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH ONLY MARGINAL UPSLOPE
GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. A FAST MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULHMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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