687
FXUS65 KPSR 272010
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- A FAST MOVING AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY YIELDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AND 500 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS
BROAD RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE. A FETCH OF UPPER-LVL MOISTURE
IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH AZ, BRINGING ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE DOING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MITIGATING TEMPERATURES HOWEVER AS HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND MID 60S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR PERFECT
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING LOWS TO
SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ON FRIDAY, RIDGING ALOFT
WILL FLATTEN OUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
LEAD TO 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWERING BELOW 580 DAM AND WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL AROUND 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK/
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER IS SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS THE EXPECTED WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOW LIKELY TO
MOVE MORE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, BUT NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND AWAY FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE
GEFS AND EPS SHOW SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT QPF (LESS THAN 0.10")
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX, BUT LITTLE IF
ANYTHING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NBM POPS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH CHANCES NOW LESS THAN 10% IN THE PHOENIX AREA TO AT
MOST 10-15% OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. THE TROUGH
SHOULD AT LEAST LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER STARTING MONDAY,
BUT MODELS ARE NOW ALSO LIMITING THE COOLING TO AT MOST DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS QUITE LOW
AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A
POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW SETTING UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO HANDLE AND IT IS UNKNOWN
AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH AND WHEN THIS POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW WOULD
IMPACT OUR REGION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1730Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
PHOENIX METRO TERMINALS, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MOSTLY EASTERLY
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE STARTING THIS EVENING, BEFORE GOING BACK EASTERLY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OUT WEST, KIPL WILL KEEP WESTERLY WINDS,
WHILE KBLH MOSTLY NW WITH PERIODS OF VRB. WIND SPEEDS AT ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AOB 10KTS, AND THESE SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PACKAGE
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. MINRHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 25-35% EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES REMAINING GOOD TO VERY GOOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
MPH AND FOLLOW THEIR NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH ONLY MARGINAL
UPSLOPE GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. A FAST MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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