451
FXUS65 KPSR 280835
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
135 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- A FAST MOVING AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SKIRT PAST THE
AREA TO THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE NORMAL RANGE, LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BECOME A BIT
FRACTURED WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST PUSHING ONE WEAK
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA AND ANOTHER DIRECTLY SOUTH JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNDER WEAK RIDGING THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT THAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD BROAD TROUGHING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS, OR AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN LATER ON SUNDAY, WE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SEE A PERIOD OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO OUR AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD LESS ACTIVE WEATHER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE SHOULD
BYPASS OUR AREA COMPLETELY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BRINGING ONLY A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
KNOCKING DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES, OR WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. THE OTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST SHOULD BASICALLY BE A NON-FACTOR
FOR OUR REGION AS IT BECOMES MOSTLY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OR SOMEWHAT GET ABSORBED BY A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT COULD
JUST BE ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM OR IT MAY TRY TO CUT OFF AND
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THEY STILL SHOW MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(20-40%) CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IF THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING A FAST MOVER IT LIKELY WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN HIGH TERRAIN PRECIP CHANCES, BUT IF IT CUTS OFF AND DOESN'T
STRAY TOO FAR TO THE WEST IT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES.
WE LIKELY WILL NOT KNOW WHICH SOLUTION WILL WIN OUT UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0835Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
PHOENIX METRO TERMINALS, WINDS WILL FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH A WEST SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
WESTERN TERMINALS, KIPL WILL KEEP WESTERLY WINDS, WHILE KBLH
MOSTLY NW WITH PERIODS OF VRB. ANY LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DESPITE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE
STARTING MONDAY. DAILY MINRHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 25-35%
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES OF 60-80%. WINDS WILL OVERALL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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