718
FXUS65 KPSR 282034
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
134 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- A FAST MOVING AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SKIRT PAST THE
AREA TO THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE NORMAL RANGE, LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DESERT SW UNDER A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH HAS BROUGHT THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AND FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME
HIGH PASSING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING 1-3
DEGREES TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 75 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT A SMALL
SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING
TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHIFT COMES FROM AN A UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ORIGINATING FROM THE NW, THAT WILL REACH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD LESS ACTIVE WEATHER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE SHOULD
BYPASS OUR AREA COMPLETELY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BRINGING ONLY A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
KNOCKING DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES, OR WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. THE OTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST SHOULD BASICALLY BE A NON-FACTOR
FOR OUR REGION AS IT BECOMES MOSTLY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OR SOMEWHAT GET ABSORBED BY A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT COULD
JUST BE ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM OR IT MAY TRY TO CUT OFF AND
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THEY STILL SHOW MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(20-40%) CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. IF THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING A FAST MOVER IT LIKELY WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN HIGH TERRAIN PRECIP CHANCES, BUT IF IT CUTS OFF AND DOESN'T
STRAY TOO FAR TO THE WEST IT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES.
WE LIKELY WILL NOT KNOW WHICH SOLUTION WILL WIN OUT UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1740Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE PHOENIX METRO TERMINALS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB UNTIL
SHIFTING OUT OF THE WSW BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE SOUTHEAST CA TERMINALS, KIPL WILL SEE LIGHT
SE FLOW BEFORE RETURNING TO THE WSW AFTER SUNSET, WHILE KBLH WILL
BE PRIMARILY S-SE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT OUT OF THE WSW
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DESPITE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE STARTING
MONDAY. DAILY MINRHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 25-35% THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF
60-80%. WINDS WILL OVERALL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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