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FXUS65 KPSR 292016
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
116 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES.
- A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BYPASS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
ON MONDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP BRINGING DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST ZONE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WITH A CASE OF DEJA VU ON SUNDAY WITH
ALMOST IDENTICAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WITH A
CUT OFF LOW SEEN TRAVELING SOUTHWARDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ORIGINATING
FROM THE NW, WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS, WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO PULL TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT CHANGED THEIR THINKING WITH THE
FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM STAYING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY TO
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
SYSTEM WILL HOWEVER DROP HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND BRING SOME
NORTHERLY BREEZY WIND ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. TUESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA AND DAYTIME HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMALS.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE THE NEXT UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM DIVE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN,
BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD WHAT HAPPENS
THEREAFTER. AROUND 2/3RDS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE CORE OF
THIS NEXT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHILE THE REST HAVE A
MORE NORTHERLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. EVEN IF THE MAJORITY SOLUTION WINS OUT, WE ARE NOT
GUARANTEED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THIS SOLUTION
MAY LEAD TO A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH COULD RETROGRADE TOO FAR TO THE
WEST. FOR NOW THE NBM IS SHOWING EITHER SOLUTION COULD HAPPEN
WITH BROAD LOW-END POP CHANCES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND
FRIDAY MORNING. AS STATED YESTERDAY, WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAVE A
VERY GOOD IDEA ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN UNTIL AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1715Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS AND
DIRECTIONS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH PERIODS OF
CALM AND LIGHT VARIABILITY. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME FEW HIGH CIRRUS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DESPITE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE
STARTING MONDAY. DAILY MINRHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 25-35%
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES OF 60-80%. WINDS WILL OVERALL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY STARTING MONDAY MORNING. BY THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HUMIDITIES INCREASING
FURTHER.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...FRIEDERS
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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