851
FXUS65 KPSR 151745
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ALL WEEK.
- RECORD SETTING HIGHS AND WARM LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS TODAY, INCLUDING PHOENIX.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL OVERALL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEK, BUT A SHALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL ONLY BRING SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
TODAY FOLLOWED BY A 2-3 DEGREE DIP IN TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.
HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO TOP THE DAILY RECORD OF 79 DEGREES IN
PHOENIX WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ONCE H5 HEIGHTS SETTLE DOWN CLOSER TO
580DM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
FALL SHORT OF 80 DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TO MOVE MORE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT,
ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE AGAIN CLOSER TO
585DM BY THURSDAY OR WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
THIS SHOULD PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES UPWARD AGAIN WITH SOME LOWER 80S
LIKELY POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DO STILL KEEP THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OFF THE BAJA COAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE RIDGE
WILL STILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE COMING WEEKEND PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END LATER NEXT
WEEK AS GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS A TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE WEST
COAST BY CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1745Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND MOSTLY VRB THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS MORNING AT THE PHOENIX METRO TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY A NW
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AT
THE SE CALIFORNIA TAF SITES, WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE
N-NW AT KBLH AND W-NW AT KIPL. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ALL WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, OR 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY NORMALS. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY
FOLLOWING FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS. MINRHS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25%
WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 40-70%.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGHS
PHOENIX
-------
12/15 79 (1969)
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...BENEDICT
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