413
FXUS65 KPSR 160857
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
157 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SHALLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL TO THE EAST WITH STRONGER RIDGING
ONCE AGAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE BRIEF
DIP IN HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY A FEW
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS MOSTLY
IN A 75-79 DEGREE RANGE. THE RESURGENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NOW SHOWS RECORD H5 HEIGHTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITHIN ITS CORE, WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE WILL FULLY
MOVE OVER OUR REGION BY TONIGHT. THE RISING HEIGHTS FOR OUR REGION
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HOWEVER NOT RESULT IN HIGHER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO VERY POOR MIXING INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THURSDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN THE SAME WITH
HEIGHTS EVEN LOWERING SLIGHTLY DUE TO A PASSING TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH. SKY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL OVERALL BE FAIRLY
CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CIRRUS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE CENTER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 585-587DM
EARLY ON FRIDAY. THIS PEAK IN HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NBM SHOWING HIGHS MOSTLY BETWEEN
78-81 DEGREES. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES SHOULD THEN SEND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER HEIGHTS MORE INTO A
582-584DM RANGE ON SATURDAY. THIS BACK AND FORTH OF SLIGHTLY
RISING AND LOWERING OF HEIGHTS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY SHOWING ANOTHER TEMPORARY BUMP IN HEIGHTS.
OVERALL, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO LAST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS
STAYING NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WE SHOULD FINALLY GET A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVING
TO OVER TEXAS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ALSO BY WEDNESDAY, BUT
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR THE DAY AFTER. THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE ON THE WARMER SIDE RESULTING IN HIGH
SNOW LEVELS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0830Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIGHT AND DIURNAL WITH KPHX AND KIWA EXPECTING
THEIR TYPICAL WESTERLY SHIFT BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT VRB WINDS
DURING THE TRANSITION PERIODS. AT OUR WESTERN TERMINALS, KIPL WILL
BE EASTERLY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHERE VRB CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
OVER, AND KBLH WILL BE MOSTLY NW GOING MORE NNW BY THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH, WITH PERIODS
OF CLEAR SKIES LIKELY DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ALL WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, OR 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY NORMALS. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE LIGHT AND FOLLOW
FAMILIAR DIURNAL PATTERNS. MINRHS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25% WHILE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIR UP TO 40-70%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO/KUHLMAN
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