479
FXUS65 KPSR 061106
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
- A PAIR OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN ELONGATED PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS WERE BEING PINCHED OFF FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS GENERAL CIRCULATION WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DESCEND
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BAJA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE CARVING OUT
A TROUGH BASE AS STRONG JET ENERGY TRANSLATES EASTWARD. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY WHILE IMPARTING ENOUGH MOIST, ASCENT INTO
MUCH OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE THE
INITIAL THETA-E SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A H7-H5 LAYER WILL
INITIATE A TOP DOWN SATURATION PROCESS, A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE 300-315K LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
SATURATION AS PWATS APPROACH 1" WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE VORTICTY CENTER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND CYCLONIC
JET CORE OVER THE CWA SHOULD ASSIST IN DYNAMIC COOLING AND
ADDITIONALLY SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. NBM POPS WERE ACTUALLY
INCREASED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HREF GUIDANCE AND PATTERN
RECOGNITIONS ARGUES FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, BUT STILL LOW QPF
EVENT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE EJECTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY, A CLASSIC WINTER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED PV DIGGING INTO DEEPENING INLAND CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FOR
A MORE INTENSE VORTICITY CENTER CARVING OUT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE STILL APPEARS NEARLY OPTIMAL FOR VORTICITY FORCED ASCENT
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD CORE AND STEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY ALLOWS MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO WHERE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS (MLCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG) MAY DEVELOP
AND EVEN SUPPORT SOME GRAUPEL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING, STEEP COLD FRONT, AND
DEEPENING SYSTEM JUXTAPOSED WITH THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION, THESE
SHOWERS MAY ALSO TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM TOWARDS THE SURFACE IN THE FORM
OF GUSTS 30+ MPH.
ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF A STRONGER VORTICITY CENTER AND SHARPER
NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION IS MORE INTENSE UPSTREAM PRESSURE RISES
AND ABILITY TO VERTICALLY MIX STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE TREND IN MODEL OUTPUT STRONGLY SUPPORTS A PATTERN OF
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING (40-50KT) POST FRONTAL H9-H8 WINDS SURGING DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ADDED THERMAL INFLUENCES. HAVE STARTED TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE MANDATED NBM
WHICH SEEMS TO NOT BE CAPTURING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH A PATTERN COMMON
DURING THE WINTER. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
ENTIRE WAVE STRUCTURE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER, DRIER POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS, LOCALIZED FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR
RURAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A BLOCKING
PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK INTO A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL RANGE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1105Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER
THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WITH ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DIRECTIONS WILL ATTEMPT TO
SWITCH TO WESTERLY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH A LIGHT N/NW COMPONENT
WOULD BE MOST COMMON. MUCH LOWER CIGS AND SCATTERED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PACKAGE LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WETTING
RAINFALL CHANCES HEIGHTENED ACROSS EASTERN DISTRICTS AS A PAIR OF
WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO A 40-60% RANGE, HOWEVER READINGS
IN A 15-30% RANGE WILL BECOME MORE COMMON BEGINNING FRIDAY.
CONCURRENTLY, EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY BETTER THAN 75% WILL
DETERIORATE INTO A 40-70% RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. STRONG NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
YIELDING AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH LESSER IMPACTS BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...18
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page