689
FXUS65 KPSR 080559
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1059 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A PAIR OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE
REBOUNDING BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A RETURN.
- DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED REGION WIDE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA THANKS TO A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SETUP AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES WILL
PROMOTE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE VORTICITY CORE EJECTS EASTWARD AND WE
MOSTLY DRY OUT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL RATES AND THEREFORE QPF TOTALS. LOWER DESERT TOTALS
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS THAT FIND
THEMSELVES UNDER OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE COLORADO
RIVER SO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA MAY MISS OUT. HOWEVER, A FEW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AROUND ENHANCED TERRAIN FEATURES, CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT DO TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD CORE.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT
THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN TO START THE YEAR WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 60S. ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REACH CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S AS A BIT OF CLEARING
TAKES PLACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME STRONG WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES (>80%) OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH, A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS GILA AND NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES WHERE TERRAIN INDUCED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THAT TIMEFRAME. RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT END
THERE HOWEVER AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN WITH IT. THIS BOUNDARY, AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMIC LIFT, WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PROMOTE
FURTHER PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THAT MINOR INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, ALLOWING FOR THE
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
COLD ALOFT, ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PACK SOME SMALL HAIL,
ALONG WITH WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30-35 MPH DUE TO TRANSFER OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW FROM MID-LEVELS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BEST
TIMING FOR POTENTIAL STORMS WILL BE FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WE QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GRADIENT DRIVEN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
ONCE AGAIN, BUT THIS TIME ON A REGIONAL SCALE, WITH THE HIGHEST
GUST FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY
DOES EXIST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING GUSTS REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS (>40 MPH) FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND JOSHUA
TREE NP. IN TURN, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING
DAYS FOR THIS AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH THAT
WILL BRING US RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY ADVECT INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS
DROPPING TO 0.1-0.3" BY FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOME LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT, WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN THE 558-
567 DM RANGE, THE WIDE RANGE IS DUE TO THE TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXITING OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AS A
RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE TROUGH IN
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY, H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO A 573-576 DM RANGE.
AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING, THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER. WITH THE TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING THE
REGION, THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALSO QUICKLY EXIT
OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MAXIMIZING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO, FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR
RURAL VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED. LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS, MID 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS MORE RURAL LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES, AND IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING TO WESTERN CONUS, AND CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 576-579 DM RANGE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A
RESULT. ON SUNDAY AN MONDAY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON TUESDAY,
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM,
GOING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S (LOW TO MID 30S) ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN) ON SUNDAY TO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
(MID TO UPPER 30S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN) ON
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0540Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
WILL BE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W-NW WINDS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT AREA RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF THE METRO TERMINALS, HOWEVER
VCSH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND
2-3 KFT AT KIWA AND KPHX AND AS LOW AS 1-2 KFT AT KSDL AND KDVT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 8 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AROUND 20Z-21Z, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE PHOENIX METRO, CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 20-25 KTS.
THERE IS STILL A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING FOG
AT KBLH FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY AT KIPL AND
LIGHT AND VRB AT KBLH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT
TIMES. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG AND MVFR VSBYS AT KBLH,
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WETTING RAINFALL CHANCES HEIGHTENED ACROSS EASTERN DISTRICTS AS A
PAIR OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
MINRHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50-70% REGION WIDE WITH EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. TOMORROW, MINRHS WILL BE IN A 50-80% RANGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DISTRICTS AND WILL BE IN THE
20-40% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, WITH EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IN THE EASTERN DISTRICTS AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY IN THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. BY FRIDAY, MINRH WILL FALL INTO
A 15-35% RANGE, WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY, REGION WIDE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING YIELDING AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH LESSER IMPACTS BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
AZZ534-552-556-560-562.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
AZZ533-534-551>554-556-560>562.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH/18
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page