023
FXUS65 KPSR 082011
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
111 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG, AS WELL AS BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
REMAIN IN AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
- AFTER TODAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED A
COUPLE WELL DEFINED LINES OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP, MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM
THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH HAS FOLLOWED AN
INLAND TRAJECTORY AND DIVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST STATES
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. AS THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, ANTICIPATE THERE TO BE A WINDOW OF TIME, BETWEEN APPROX.
1-4 PM MST, WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THIS TIMING COINCIDES
WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY, WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING
MUCAPES PEAKING JUST UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG, AS WELL AS MODEST TO
GOOD SHEAR (EBWD AROUND 20-30 KTS.) REMAIN WEATHER AWARE THIS
AFTERNOON! THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
THE OTHER IMPACT OF THIS FRONT SWEEPING THE AREA WILL BE REGIONALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
OUT WEST, WITH MOST GUIDANCE HONING IN ON THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS FOR WIND GUSTS LOCALLY
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. OVERNIGHT, THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SE CA HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SURFACE
INVERSION BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE A SURGE IN WINDS ALONG THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
WILL LIKELY PEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-35 MPH AND SOME LINGERING BREEZINESS FRIDAY THAT
WILL DECREASE OVER THE AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE
REGION TODAY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT ITS
CENTER THAN RECENT SYSTEMS, WITH NAEFS MEAN 700 MB TEMPERATURES
BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. IN FACT, SOME RURAL
AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS, AND SO FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE NOW REPLACED THE
PREVIOUS WATCHES. LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 5000-6000 FEET THANKS TO
THE COOLER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA, AND SO LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL FALL
AS SNOW OVER THE PEAKS EAST OF PHOENIX. ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO A
FEW INCHES MAY BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PEAKS ABOVE 6000 FT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, VERY DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH NAEFS MEAN PWATS DROPPING
BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (0.10-
0.15"). THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FRIDAY ONWARD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COLD TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AND PAIRED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. RURAL AND LOW LYING
AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. DUE TO
THIS A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO WESTERN CONUS. THE CENTER OF THIS
HIGH WILL INITIALLY BE OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA, AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MIGRATE OVER NORTHERN CA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 576-582 DM
RANGE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A
RESULT. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM, GOING FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S (LOW TO MID 30S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) ON SUNDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S (UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN) ON WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION, DRY
CONDITIONS DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1740Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
CONTINUED LOW CIGS AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SCT-BKN CIGS AS LOW 3 KFT WILL REMAIN INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT THEN SWITCHING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE 20Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME
WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KTS AND TEMPORARY
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AOA 6 KFT LEFTOVER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
WEST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPHX, WHERE
DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME HIGHLY VARIABLE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SWITCH THE WINDS OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AT KIPL AND NEAR 30 KTS
AT KBLH. WINDS AT KIPL WILL DIMINISH TO AOB 10 KTS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT KBLH, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
GUSTS NEAR TO POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 35 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH HEIGHTENED WETTING RAINFALL CHANCES
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. MINRHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50-80% RANGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DISTRICTS, WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. IN THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, MINRHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
20-40% RANGE, WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. TOMORROW, MINRH WILL
FALL INTO A 15-40% RANGE, WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY, REGION
WIDE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING YIELDING AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE CA, MAINLY
ACROSS RIDGETOPS. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
(15-25 MPH) WITH LESSER IMPACTS BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR AZZ530-533-534-551>554-556-560>562.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
AZZ534-552-556-560-562.
CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ560.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ560.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ560-564-565-568.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ569-570.
SHORT TERM...WHITTOCK
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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