614
FXUS65 KPSR 091202
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
IN AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE LOW THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO OUR AREA
IS CURRENTLY IN NW NM. PWATS HAVE CRASHED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 0.2-0.3" OVER OUR AREA. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE,
RAIN CHANCES HAVE RETURNED TO ZERO, AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE
REGION, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS HAVE NOT. AZ IS STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND THUS ITS ASSOCIATED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO
SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS SE CA. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN SE CA AND THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-55 MPH ANTICIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF SE CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND THE HIGHEST GUSTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. WITH THESE HIGH WINDS, A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 12PM PST/1PM MST.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION TO SOME GUSTY WINDS, THE TROUGH HAS ALSO USHERED IN A
LOT OF COLD AIR. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR CWA WE WILL BE
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SKIES WILL ALSO
REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT. THE COLD AIR USHERED IN FROM THE LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS
(THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW MORNING). THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. AS OF 3AM MST/2AM PST THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY IN THE MID 30S IN A LOT OF THE RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS,
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. THE RESIDUAL
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER, WITH TOMORROW ANTICIPATED TO BE THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE YEAR SO FAR. WITH RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS
FORECASTED TO FALL TO AND PAST THE FREEZING MARK, FREEZE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND
TOMORROW MORNING. TOMORROW'S WARNING HAS MORE LOCATIONS INCLUDED
SINCE IT IS FORECASTED TO BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
MORNING LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30 TO LOW 40S
RANGE. AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOSE WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOMORROW AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO
WESTERN CONUS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL INITIALLY BE OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL CA, AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIGRATE OVER NORTHERN CA
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
MAXIMIZE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER OUR
REGION AROUND 582-585 DM. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS
A RESULT. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE TO END THE WORKWEEK
(MAXIMIZING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY) , WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM, GOING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S (LOW TO MID 30S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S (UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO END THE
WORKWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
REGION, DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1200Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT, BUT
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS
MORNING WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KIWA,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KSDL AND NORTHERLY AT KDVT. BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE NORTHERLY
WINDS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BE STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS AT KBLH WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT GO WESTERLY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND SPEEDS AT KBLH WILL PICK UP AROUND 14Z, WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 KT RANGE
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KIPL, WIND SPEEDS
WILL PICK UP LATE THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 25 KT. SPEEDS
AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS USHERED
IN AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR. MINRH VALES HAVE FALLEN TO 15-35% AND
WILL REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL BE IN A 40-70% RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM
HAS ALSO BROUGHT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION,
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH, BUT
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-55 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS. THE HIGHEST GUTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ530.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
AZZ530-533-534-551>554-556-560>562.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR AZZ534-552-556-
560-562.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ569-570.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
CAZ560-569.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ560.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ560-564-565-568.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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