468
FXUS65 KPSR 100536
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1036 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
- FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THAN THAT
OF LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE TYPICALLY PRONE RURAL AND LOW LYING
AREAS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL THEN WARM NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW, TURNING NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS SOUTHERN AZ, AS THE REGION IS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS CENTERED NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. A VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN THIS
MORNING, DESPITE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. PWATS HAVE
RAPIDLY DROPPED, NOW MOSTLY BELOW 0.30" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
STILL FALLING AS A DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. NAEFS AND ENS ADVERTISE MEAN PWATS HOVERING AROUND
0.10-0.15" THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH IS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
CFSR CLIMATOLOGY AND BELOW THE 1ST PERCENTILE FOR A FEW AREAS.
AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER
THE AREA TODAY, ANTICIPATE LINGERING BREEZINESS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SE CA AND
SW AZ TO DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM PST/5 PM MST AS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. A GUST UP TO 53 MPH
WAS REPORTED AT BLYTHE AIRPORT LATE THIS MORNING. VERY DRY AIR, CALM
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS
SUCH, FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT AND MORE WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING, COVERING MANY
OF THE TYPICAL FREEZE-PRONE RURAL VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. YOU
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROTECT THE 4 P'S (PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND
PIPES) FROM THE COLD, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE WITHIN THE AREAS
COVERED BY FREEZE WARNINGS. AFTER WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE SEASON SO FAR, AFTERNOON HIGHS SATURDAY ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS,
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW DAILY NORMALS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT THIS WEEKEND, WITH ALMOST ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF THE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST AND RETROGRADING OVER SONORA, EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER/NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE
EAST PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESEMBLES A REX BLOCK, WHICH
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR A FEW DAYS. CHARACTERISTIC OF A REX
BLOCK, ENSEMBLES ADVERTISE AN EASTERLY JET FORMING IN BETWEEN THE
CUTOFF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FORMING SOMEWHERE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, NAEFS/ENS MEAN SLP WILL
REACH NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM VALUES AT TIMES OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WITH LOWER SLP OFFSHORE, FORCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO
WESTERN CONUS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL INITIALLY BE OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL CA, AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIGRATE OVER NORTHERN CA
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
MAXIMIZE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER OUR
REGION AROUND 582-585 DM. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS
A RESULT. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE TO END THE WORKWEEK
(MAXIMIZING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY) , WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM, GOING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S (LOW TO MID 30S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S (UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO END THE
WORKWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
REGION, DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0536Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NE, WITH SOME PERIOD OF
NNW POSSIBLE. BY TOMORROW MORNING (~15Z) WINDS WILL DEVELOP A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT. WIND SPEEDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
ABOVE 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MOST NOTABLY AT KIWA.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS AT KIPL WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W/NW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THEN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. AT KBLH,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N. WIND SPEEDS AT KIPL WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KTS, AND AT KBLH SUSTAIN WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE BUT
UNLIKELY SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND BACK INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY
HAS USHERED IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. MINRH VALUES
HAVE FALLEN INTO A 15-35% RANGE AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT RANGE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES GENERALLY BETWEEN
40-70%. YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM HAS ALSO BROUGHT BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH, BUT GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 40-55 MPH GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN DISTRICTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ530-533-534-
551>554-556-560>562.
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ560-569.
SHORT TERM...WHITTOCK
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK/BERISLAVICH
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