320
FXUS65 KPSR 101130
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
430 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
PRONE RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, WARMING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
PLAINS ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN INTO THE BAJA ALONG WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER COASTAL WESTERN CONUS. OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER A
DRY, COLD AIR MASS WITH PWATS AROUND 0.1-0.2". WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING OVER OUR REGION. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE) WILL
ALLOW US TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING, THE COLDEST ONE OF THE WINTER
SEASON SO FAR. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BOTTOM OUT THIS MORNING IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE TYPICAL, COLD PRONE, RURAL AND
LOW-LYING AREAS. ELSEWHERE, IN THE MORE URBAN AREAS TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN OVER WESTERN CONUS,
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR HEIGHTS ALOFT TO RISE, WHICH WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY, HOWEVER STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH BOTH THE MORNING LOWS AND
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPERATURES,
SOME SHELTERED, RURAL, LOW-LYING AREAS STILL MAY REACH OR NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. SO MAKE SURE TO KEEP PROTECTING THE
4 P'S (PEOPLE, PET, PIPES, AND PLANTS), ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN
THOSE TYPICAL COLD PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO GO BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY. THE LOWER DESERTS ARE FORECASTED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ARE
FORECASTED TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.
A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD JUST NORTH OF THIS
LOW, RESULTING IN A REX BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS REX BLOCKING PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS DUE TO AN
EASTERLY JET FORMING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, IN BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED WINDS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THIS JET
MAXIMIZING OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS
WHEN WE ARE EXPECTING THE STRONGEST WINDS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX, WHERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS. DUE TO THIS A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED. DESPITE THIS CLOSED LOW
INFLUENCING OUR REGION, IT WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO OUR REGION AS THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK
BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAXIMIZE DURING THIS
TIME, WHICH IS WHEN WE'RE FORECASTING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE ON THE
RISE, GOING FROM THE 40S (30S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS) TO START THE WORKWEEK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
(LOW TO MID 40S) TO END THE WORKWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1130Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 5 KT AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 8-13 KT AFTER THAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KIPL UNTIL GOING NORTHERLY AROUND
MID-MORNING BEFORE GOING BACK WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
AT KIPL WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS AT KBLH WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 10-15 KT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND BACK INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS
COMING WEEK. MINRH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO A 15-35% RANGE AND
WILL REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK, WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40-70%. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THIS
TIME THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICT WHERE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS WEEKEND ARE
ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. HIGHEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR AZZ530-533-534-
551>554-556-560>562.
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ560-569.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page