961
FXUS65 KPSR 111007
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX, WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 2PM MST.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EARLY THIS MORNING UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT A REX BLOCKING PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER OUR REGION. A
CLOSED LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE BAJA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AN EASTERLY JET
HAS FORMED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS JET WILL MAXIMIZE THIS
MORNING AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS,
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS AZ. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX, WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 40-55 MPH POSSIBLE (HIGHEST GUSTS 50-55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ALONG RIDGETOPS). SOME ISOLATED GUSTS INTO THE 30S AND
40S HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP
LATER THIS MORNING, ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT, AND THE HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON (2PM MST). WINDS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CLOSED LOW, AND
ASSOCIATED JET, SHIFT SW OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS EVENING.
ASIDE FROM THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL
LARGELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED SHELTERED VALLEYS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR DIP BELOW THE FREEZING POINT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER WARMING IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK
BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAXIMIZE. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY RISE RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE FORECASTED
FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE HIGH IS
FORECASTED TO MAXIMIZE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY. ADDITIONALLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ON THE RISE, GOING FROM THE 40S (30S) ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS) ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S (LOW TO MID 40S) TO END THE WORKWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0540Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN AN E TO NE COMPONENT. WIND
SPEEDS AT KPHX WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 10 KTS THROUGH THE WHOLE
PERIOD, WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS HOVERING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS OUTSIDE
OF THE GUSTY PERIODS. AS MENTIONED, SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS,
NOTABLY HIGHER AT KPHX AND KIWA THAN THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. THESE
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE BY THE EVENING HOURS (~00-01Z).
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS AT EACH TERMINAL WILL FAVOR A N/NW.
SPEEDS AT KIPL SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WHILE KBLH CAN EXPECTED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AROUND 07-15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK. MINRH VALUES OF
15-35% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEK. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS, ESPECIALLY RIDGETOPS, WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY PREVAILING
DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ552-558.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ547-555-557-
561-562.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page