636
FXUS65 KPSR 111713
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 2PM MST.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EARLY THIS MORNING UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT A REX BLOCKING PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER OUR REGION. A CLOSED LOW
HAS SET UP OVER THE BAJA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN
CONUS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AN EASTERLY JET HAS FORMED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS JET WILL MAXIMIZE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
ACROSS AZ. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-55 MPH POSSIBLE
(HIGHEST GUSTS 50-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG RIDGETOPS). SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING, ONCE THE SUN COMES
OUT, AND THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON (2PM MST). WINDS WILL THEN TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CLOSED LOW,
AND ASSOCIATED JET, SHIFT SW OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS EVENING.
ASIDE FROM THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL
LARGELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED SHELTERED VALLEYS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR DIP BELOW THE FREEZING POINT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER WARMING IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK
BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAXIMIZE. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY RISE RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE FORECASTED
FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE HIGH IS
FORECASTED TO MAXIMIZE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY. ADDITIONALLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ON THE RISE, GOING FROM THE 40S (30S) ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS) ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S (LOW TO MID 40S) TO END THE WORKWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1710Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
UNDER CLEAR SKIES, THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE FREQUENT E/NE WIND GUSTS AND LACK OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY SWITCH. GUSTS 25-35KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AROUND SUNSET. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THE LOSS OF GUSTINESS
LATER TODAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10KT BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE EAST WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, IT
WOULD NOT BE UNUSUAL FOR KPHX TO EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
WILL BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TENDENCY FOR
DIRECTIONS TO BACK TO WESTERLY AT KIPL DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK. MINRH VALUES OF 15-35% AND
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS COMING
WEEK. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS, ESPECIALLY
RIDGETOPS, WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY PREVAILING DIRECTION TODAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ552-558.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ547-555-557-
561-562.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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