365
FXUS65 KPSR 111944
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1244 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE FOOTHILL AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARD WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OVER
THE WESTERN TIER OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND HAS HELPED SET OFF SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DUE TO THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. ELEVATED GUSTS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR FOOTHILLS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS, AS THE GRADIENT ONLY RELAXES SLIGHTLY.
OBSERVATIONS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR THESE AREAS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST
RIDGE TOPS EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LIMITED
SCOPE OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, NO WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
AFTER A CHILLY END TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK TOWARD NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK
BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAXIMIZE. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY RISE RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE FORECASTED
FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE HIGH IS
FORECASTED TO MAXIMIZE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY. ADDITIONALLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ON THE RISE, GOING FROM THE 40S (30S) ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS) ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S (LOW TO MID 40S) TO END THE WORKWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1710Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
UNDER CLEAR SKIES, THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE FREQUENT E/NE WIND GUSTS AND LACK OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY SWITCH. GUSTS 25-35KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AROUND SUNSET. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THE LOSS OF GUSTINESS
LATER TODAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10KT BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE EAST WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, IT
WOULD NOT BE UNUSUAL FOR KPHX TO EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
WILL BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TENDENCY FOR
DIRECTIONS TO BACK TO WESTERLY AT KIPL DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK. MINRH VALUES OF 15-35% AND
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS COMING
WEEK. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS, ESPECIALLY
RIDGETOPS, WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY PREVAILING DIRECTION TODAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ547-552-555-
557-558-561-562.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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