841
FXUS65 KPSR 141044
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
344 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE LATEST RAP 500 MB HGHT FIELD SHOWS A
DOMINANT 590 DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER N CA AND NW NV. THESE ANALYZED
HGHTS ARE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OUR FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
STRONG ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE DRY NE FLOW
ALOFT OVER AZ AND SE CA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BY FRIDAY, THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WWD AS A STRONG POLAR JET
CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SUBTLE
PATTERN SHIFT WILL REDUCE HGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
HOWEVER N-NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER TO
THE REGION. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN A STEADY STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH OCCASIONAL MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS NE OF PHOENIX.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
(6-10 DEGREES). 500 MB HGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER
THE WEEKEND KEEPING A MOSTLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST. BY THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, A STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SO WE COULD SEE
A FEW DEGREES OF POTENTIAL COOLING DUE TO THE RELAXATION OF 500 MB
HEIGHTS. WITH PERSIST NW FLOW CARRYING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAIN CHANCES
TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1043Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY WINDS ARE FAVORED IN PHOENIX
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE TEENS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PERSISTENTLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. MINRH VALUES OF
15-30% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THIS WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA CAUSING MINRHS TO FALL AROUND 15-25% WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES OF 30- 60%. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS AND NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN DISTRICTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page