137
FXUS65 KPSR 141711
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. THE LATEST RAP 500 MB HGHT FIELD SHOWS A DOMINANT 590
DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER N CA AND NW NV. THESE ANALYZED HGHTS ARE NEAR
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST AREA
IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STRONG ANTICYCLONE
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE DRY NE FLOW ALOFT OVER AZ AND SE CA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BY FRIDAY, THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH
WILL RETROGRADE WWD AS A STRONG POLAR JET CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT WILL REDUCE HGHTS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER N-NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN A STEADY STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S. EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH OCCASIONAL
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
FOOTHILLS NE OF PHOENIX.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL (6-
10 DEGREES). 500 MB HGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
WEEKEND KEEPING A MOSTLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST. BY THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, A STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SO WE COULD SEE A
FEW DEGREES OF POTENTIAL COOLING DUE TO THE RELAXATION OF 500 MB
HEIGHTS. WITH PERSIST NW FLOW CARRYING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAIN CHANCES
TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1710Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME POTENTIAL
VARIABILITY NEAR SUNSET AS DIRECTIONS ATTEMPT TO SWITCH. A N/NW WIND
COMPONENT WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA. EXTENDED
PERIODS OF NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PERSISTENTLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. MINRH VALUES OF
15-30% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THIS WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA CAUSING MINRHS TO FALL AROUND 15-25% WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES OF 30- 60%. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS AND NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN DISTRICTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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