186
FXUS65 KPSR 142354
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
454 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PIVOTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
COUNTERPOINT ANTI-CYCLONIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REACHING ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE, DRY NORTHEAST FLOW, AND H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-
585DM RANGE. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE ENTIRE LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRESTING
THE RIDGE AXIS AND DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH BASE DOWNSTREAM. AS A
RESULT, H5 HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE CLOSER TO A 576-579DM RANGE,
HOWEVER LOWER TROPOSPHERE THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE
MAINTAINING A NEAR PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SPREAD REMAINS FAIRLY NARROW PROVIDING EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE OF
TEMPERATURES 8F-12F ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL PASSING
CIRRUS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL (6-
10 DEGREES). 500 MB HGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
WEEKEND KEEPING A MOSTLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST. BY THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, A STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SO WE COULD SEE A
FEW DEGREES OF POTENTIAL COOLING DUE TO THE RELAXATION OF 500 MB
HEIGHTS. WITH PERSIST NW FLOW CARRYING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAIN CHANCES
TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2354Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL VARIABILITY NEAR SUNSET THURSDAY AS DIRECTIONS ATTEMPT
TO SWITCH W/NW. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SW'RLY WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT
KPHX DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW. A N/NW WIND COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND BACK TO MORE OF A W/NW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTENDED PERIODS OF NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MINRH VALUES OF 15-30% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70% WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THIS WEEKEND, DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA CAUSING MINRHS TO FALL AROUND 15-25% WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 30-60%. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
EASTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS AND NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER TEENS TO AROUND 20 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...BENEDICT/18
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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