194
FXUS65 KPSR 161714
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1014 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A REX BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
THE RIDGE CENTER SLOWING SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO OFF
THE COAST OF OREGON. DEEP TROUGHING IS ALSO AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHIFTING OF THE HIGH
CENTER AWAY FROM OUR REGION, THE REINFORCEMENT OF TROUGHING TO OUR
EAST AND IS LEADING TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION. DESPITE
H5 HEIGHTS LOWERING FROM 582-584DM YESTERDAY TO 576-578DM TODAY,
IT WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. THIS
BRIEF DIP IN HEIGHTS SHOULD KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OUR HIGHS
TODAY, BUT THEY WILL STABILIZE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NEW HIGH
CENTER FORMS OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BETWEEN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S FOR THE BULK OF
THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER PERIODIC THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE REX BLOCK EVOLVES MORE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION, BUT IT SHOULD STILL
PROVIDE A GOOD AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE. FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN
TO LOWER A BIT FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
PUSH DAILY HIGHS MORE INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
A CLOSED LOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED OFF
THE WEST COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS USUALLY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
EVOLUTION, SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE TIMING OF THIS LOW
GETS PUSHED BACK A FEW DAYS. A MINORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CURRENTLY SHOW A FAIRLY ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW MOVING NEAR OUR
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT IT
IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY DETAILS. IF THIS LOW DOES
COME TO FRUITION, IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM WITH HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES AT MOST FALLING BACK INTO A NORMAL
RANGE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1705Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL FOLLOW LIGHT AND
DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS AOB 8 KTS. EXTENDED PERIODS OF
VARIABLE AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN WEST TO NORTH AT
BOTH SITES WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS, WITH PERIODS OF VARIABLE AND
CALM CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING
OUT OF THE NORTH, WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS, ESPECIALLY
AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. DAILY MINRH VALUES WILL MAINLY FALL BETWEEN 15-20% WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 30-50%. WINDS HAVE ALSO SETTLED DOWN, BUT
SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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