031
FXUS65 KPSR 170957
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
257 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON, BUT EXTENDING
ALL THE WAY THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY HAS LED TO SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER
AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION, BUT OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. AS THE REX BLOCK EVOLVES MORE INTO AN
OMEGA BLOCK STARTING SUNDAY, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE EVEN MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST PUSHING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS
MORE INTO A 73-76 DEGREE RANGE. WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING AN INCREASE
IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING ON SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE NBM SHOWS LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO FALL SHORT OF FORECAST HIGHS (LIKELY ON MONDAY) IF
THE CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN THE SAME WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE EITHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, WHILE
TEMPERATURES VERY SLOWLY DRIFT LOWER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
SHOWN TO LOWER INTO THE LOWER 70S LATE NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY A
BIT LOWER THEREAFTER DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVIDED WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO EVENTUALLY HAVE SOME
RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0950Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A 3-4 HR PERIOD OF ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND 8-10 KTS ANTICIPATED AT KIWA AND KPHX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD RELAX AND SHIFT OUT OF THE W-NW AT KPHX BY 21Z-22Z
AND THEN RETURN BACK TO THE E-NE AFTER SUNSET.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING OUT OF THE NORTH AT BOTH TERMINALS
AROUND 17Z-18Z. AFTER THIS WIND SHIFT OCCURS, SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 8-11 KTS, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY MINRH VALUES WILL MAINLY FALL BETWEEN 15-20% WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES OF 30-50%. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES RISING
SLIGHTLY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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