560
FXUS65 KPSR 171713
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1013 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON, BUT EXTENDING
ALL THE WAY THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY HAS LED TO SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER
AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION, BUT OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. AS THE REX BLOCK EVOLVES MORE INTO AN
OMEGA BLOCK STARTING SUNDAY, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE EVEN MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST PUSHING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS
MORE INTO A 73-76 DEGREE RANGE. WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING AN INCREASE
IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING ON SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE NBM SHOWS LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO FALL SHORT OF FORECAST HIGHS (LIKELY ON MONDAY) IF
THE CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN THE SAME WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE EITHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, WHILE
TEMPERATURES VERY SLOWLY DRIFT LOWER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
SHOWN TO LOWER INTO THE LOWER 70S LATE NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY A
BIT LOWER THEREAFTER DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVIDED WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO EVENTUALLY HAVE SOME
RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0950Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW LIGHT AND DIURNAL TRENDS WITH VRB TO CALM CONDITIONS
BEING COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. KPHX MAY BREAK FROM THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL SWITCH BACK TO
THE W/SW. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS SHIFT IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST WINDOW BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL FAVOR A N'RLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KBLH, BEFORE SHIFTING OUT
OUT OF THE W/NW THIS EVENING. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY
TO FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS BY TONIGHT
FIRE WEATHER
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY MINRH VALUES WILL MAINLY FALL BETWEEN 15-20% WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES OF 30-50%. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES RISING
SLIGHTLY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page