822
FXUS65 KPSR 172342
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
442 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
UPDATE
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH A REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING
ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE. TO OUR EAST A LARGE TROUGH HAS BEEN
DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WHICH HAS HELPED
OUR REGION'S H5 HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
COOLING EVER SO SLIGHTLY (1-2 DEGREES). THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO MORPH INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 73-77 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. STARTING SUNDAY A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE MONOTONOUS WEATHER WILL BE SEEN WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN THE SAME WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE EITHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, WHILE
TEMPERATURES VERY SLOWLY DRIFT LOWER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
SHOWN TO LOWER INTO THE LOWER 70S LATE NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY A
BIT LOWER THEREAFTER DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVIDED WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO EVENTUALLY HAVE SOME
RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2340Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THEIR DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AOB 6 KT. EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE TO KPHX SWITCHING TO LIGHT SW'RLY WINDS BRIEFLY IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SHIFT IS LOW, SO HAVE GONE
WITH VRB IN THE TAF FOR NOW. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL FAVOR A N'RLY COMPONENT AT KBLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS AT KBLH WILL BE IN THE TEENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE LOWERING TO AOB 7 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL FAVOR A NW'RLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING,
GO W'RLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID-MORNING BEFORE GOING BACK
NW'RLY. WIND SPEEDS, AT KIPL, WILL BE AOB 5 KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE FEW-SCT HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY MINRH VALUES WILL MAINLY FALL BETWEEN 15-20% WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES OF 30-50%. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES RISING
SLIGHTLY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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