732
FXUS65 KPSR 190950
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
THE CONUS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING FROM SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN U.S. INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS
ALSO A WEAK DISTURBANCE WEST OF BAJA WHICH IS HELPING TO BRING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION, BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE HEIGHTS FALLING FROM WHAT WE HAD SEEN SINCE
THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SHOWS LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 73-79 DEGREES TODAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO BETWEEN 71-76 DEGREES WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
REACH THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM THEREAFTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE LOW TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD JUST
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN BAJA AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE ANYWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION,
BUT GUIDANCE MOSTLY AGREES IT WILL BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS THIS
HAPPENS.
FORECAST MOISTURE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS ALSO NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH PWAT ANOMALIES CURRENTLY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER OVER THE
PAST DAY OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE
UNCERTAINTY BY ONLY HAVING 10-30% POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MORE DIRECT HIT OF THE SYSTEM
ALONG WITH EVEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST MOISTURE WOULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS, WHILE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD LIKELY
BRING LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. EITHER WAY THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0950Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL FOLLOW LIGHT AND DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING AOB 7 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. PERIOD OF CALM AND VRB WINDS
WILL ALSO BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIURNAL WIND
SHIFTS. FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS DECKS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. DAILY
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN STABLE, FALLING TO 15-20% EACH DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 30-50%. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME PERIODIC LIGHT BREEZINESS ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. THE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO
ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES AND
POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINFALL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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