174
FXUS65 KPSR 192029
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
129 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS.
- WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ITS WAY TOWARD THE REGION BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IT'S A TALE OF TWO HALVES WEATHER WISE FOR THE CONUS TODAY AS OMEGA
BLOCKING REMAINS IN PLACE. OUT EAST, LONG WAVE TROUGHING IS
PROVIDING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES, PARTS OF FLORIDA EVEN SAW SOME
SNOW YESTERDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO UP THROUGH ALASKA IS KEEPING
THINGS WARM AND DRY FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, STATUS QUO SEEMS TO BE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A VERY SLIGHT DOWNTREND
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK AS COLD AIR FROM THE PREVIOUSLY-
MENTIONED LONGWAVE SHAVES AWAY AT THE RIDGE, LOWERING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWER DESERT AREAS WILL
RANGE FROM 72-79 DEGREES BEFORE FALLING TO BETWEEN 70-75 DEGREES
BY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
REACH THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM THEREAFTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE LOW TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD JUST
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN BAJA AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE ANYWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION,
BUT GUIDANCE MOSTLY AGREES IT WILL BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS THIS
HAPPENS.
FORECAST MOISTURE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS ALSO NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH PWAT ANOMALIES CURRENTLY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER OVER THE
PAST DAY OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE
UNCERTAINTY BY ONLY HAVING 10-30% POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MORE DIRECT HIT OF THE SYSTEM
ALONG WITH EVEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST MOISTURE WOULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS, WHILE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD LIKELY
BRING LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. EITHER WAY THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1650Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER FEW CIRRUS CLOUD DECKS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS WITH
SPEEDS AOB 8 KTS ALONG WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE AND CALM
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. DAILY
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN STABLE, FALLING TO 15-20% EACH DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 30-50%. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME PERIODIC LIGHT BREEZINESS ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. THE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO
ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES AND
POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINFALL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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