499
FXUS65 KPSR 110525
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1025 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A PATTERN CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
- WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY TURN QUIETER OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION, RESULTING IN BETTER
CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS A RESULT OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SITTING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH IS THE BEGINNING OF AN
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. INITIALLY TODAY H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND 571-575 DM. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOWER HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL FROM
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, HOWEVER THEY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES, AS OF 1PM MST/12PM PST ARE AROUND 3-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY, AND ARE
FORECASTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES. MOST OF THE PVA AND
ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION,
WHICH WILL BE WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A DIFFERENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED SOUTH OF OUR REGION LAST NIGHT. THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/WESTERN TX. PWATS HAVE
INCREASED TO 0.5-0.8" OVER OUR AREA, WHICH IS UP FROM 0.3-0.5"
FROM YESTERDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS, HOWEVER, IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME VIRGA SHOWERS AND A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. IF YOU DO SEE ANY ACTIVITY, LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER EVEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY, FALLING
INTO A 568-573 DM RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, MORE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES COOLING EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL AN ADDITIONAL 3-7 DEGREES
FROM TODAY'S TEMPERATURES, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGHING FEATURE DIVES DOWN THROUGH THE WEST
COAST AND SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF ITERATIONS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION, HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE WILL SORT OF LIMIT ANY
ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN WHERE NBM POPS RANGE BETWEEN
40-70% WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER POPS OF 10-40% ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ. WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE,
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS (WHICH IS RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS.
AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN BRIEFLY SETTLES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER, MORE
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG
THE WEST COAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ONSHORE AND IF THE OVERALL TRAJECTORY IS
IDEAL, COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SUITE SHOW THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, DELIVERING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH NBM POPS RANGING BETWEEN 25-60%
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE
OVERALL DETAILS AND THUS IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. EVEN
THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN, WHAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO COOL DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LATEST NBM DETERMINISTIC SHOWING
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (VALUES MORE TYPICAL
FOR MID-FEBRUARY) WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE IN THE UPPER 60S,
WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE CLOUDY/RAINY SCENARIO COMES TO
FRUITION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0525Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KTS. BKN-OVC SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE IN THE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW BASES AROUND 7-9K FT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN A PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION AT EACH TERMINAL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY, AN
EXTENDED WINDOW OF VRB CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. W/NW'RLY AND S/SW'RLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
OVER AT KIPL AND KBLH RESPECTIVELY. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BEFORE SOME CLEARING TAKES
PLACE LATE IN THE WINDOW. FEW BASES AROUND 7-9K FT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
COOLING TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL) ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20-35% ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS, WILL BE COMMON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEATHER
SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BRING A 40-70% CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE EASTERN DISTRICTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO/BERISLAVICH
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