185
FXUS65 KPSR 111131
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN WILL HELP TO BRING SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA.
- AFTER DRY AND STILL WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DEEP TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH
TWO DISTINCT PV CENTERS AND A STREAM OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STRETCHING ALL THE WAY FROM HAWAII INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP
TROUGH IS HOWEVER NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR
REGION AS ONE PV CENTER IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE OTHER QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK
FORCING WILL AT MOST RESULT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR JUST
SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR EAST TODAY WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE TROUGH MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL HOWEVER BRING CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE FETCH GIVES OUT AND
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY AND SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN WITH HOW MUCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT THEY ARE MOSTLY TRENDING
TOWARD SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE BRIEFLY ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR FRIDAY. THE EPS IS A BIT MORE ON THE
DRIER SIDE, BUT IT HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARD WITH PWAT ANOMALIES
BETWEEN 175-200% FROM PHOENIX AND AREAS TO THE EAST. THE OTHER
UNKNOWN IS THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GEFS SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY. THE GEFS MEAN QPF
FOR FRIDAY HAS AROUND 0.10-0.15" FOR PHOENIX TO AS MUCH AS 0.50"
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX, WHEREAS THE EPS ONLY HAS
AROUND 20% OF THE GEFS'S QPF. CONSIDERING THE TRENDS, THE EPS MAY
BE THE OUTLIER AND THE LATEST NBM POPS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW. THE
TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO DROP A
GOOD DEAL ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA DUE
TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDY SKIES AND THE RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING EVEN COOLER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH FORECAST HIGHS NOW ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES FOR PHOENIX ON FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST
OVERALL SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BOUNCE
BACK THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HOWEVER
BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH WILL
BE SETTLING IN OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE DEEP WITH NEGATIVE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES DIPPING BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IS AGAIN A BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
AS IT REMAINS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF ITS ENERGY MAY MISS OUR
REGION TO THE NORTH. THE NBM LOOKS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, SO
POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK SOME. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SECOND
FOLLOW-ON SHORTWAVE THAT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES
AS LATE AS NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1131Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS AOB 8 KT AND TENDING TO FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL
TENDENCIES. SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH FEW LOWER CLOUD BASES DOWN TO 7-9K FT AGL
TODAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 10 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND
DIRECTIONS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT KBLH. AT KIPL,
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SUDDEN E-W WIND SHIFT AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF VRB.
EVENTUALLY, W/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS EVENING. BKN TO OVC
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FEW BASES AROUND 7-9K FT AGL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM SITS TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EVENTUALLY PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. MINRH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BETWEEN 20-35% THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY RISING ON
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS, WILL BE COMMON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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