596
FXUS65 KPSR 121007
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A NICE WEATHER DAY TODAY, A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO A GOOD PORTION OF ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN MID 70S.
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH TWO SEPARATE CIRCULATION CENTERS, ONE NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO AND THE OTHER ROUGHLY 1000 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA.
OUR REGION IS STILL MOSTLY BEING INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED SOUTH OF TEXAS AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER CONSENSUS SHOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH BECOMING MORE COMPACT ON FRIDAY AS BOTH CIRCULATION CENTERS
MERGE BACK INTO ONE MAIN SYSTEM. WHILE THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION ALLOWING PWATS
TO REACH THEIR PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 200% OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS REACHING 5-6 G/KG
AND SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL
JET FORCING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK PV ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT STARTING MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH
HI-RES CAMS FAVORING LOCATIONS AREAS FROM PHOENIX AND TO THE EAST
OF PHOENIX. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA, BUT LOWER MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS FROM SEEING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THE PEAK TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE EVENING. SOME AREAS
WITHIN THE PHOENIX AREA MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE,
WHILE UP TO A QUARTER INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES AND TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX WHERE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.25".
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY ALSO STRUGGLE TO TOP 70 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE CLOUDY SKIES
AND THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON SATURDAY BEFORE CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BOUNCE BACK THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S IN PHOENIX TO THE UPPER 70S IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FOLLOWED BY THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SENDING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION INTO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS NEAR RECORD LOW H5 HEIGHTS WELL WEST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
STARTS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A
RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO
DRIVE MUCH OF OUR EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE HEAVILY FAVORS THE TROUGH OPENING UP
ON MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE PV ENERGY MISSING OUR AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST, WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO HAVE A DECENT MID-LEVEL FRONT
MOVE THROUGH AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM
175-225% OF NORMAL PWATS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT
WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS AS HIGH AS 7 G/KG. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ALSO SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL
HELP TO DRIVE MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO HAVE DOUBT ON THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE EXACT
TIMING. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY
SHOWS UP TO 0.1" FOR THE WESTERN LOWER DESERTS, 0.25-0.50" FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS, TO AS MUCH AS 0.75-1.00"
OVER THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR NOW MOSTLY STAY ABOVE 6500' PROVIDING
LITTLE CHANCE OF SNOW IN OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST
LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LIKELY STAY FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR TWO MORE POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS EITHER
IMPACTING OUR REGION OR BRUSHING BY JUST TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0525Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LIGHT AND DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH
SPORADIC WINDOW OF VRB TO CALM CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN SKIES DURING
THE FRONT HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE BKN-OVC
COVERAGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER GENERALLY BKN SKIES. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NW'RLY COMPONENT AT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE SW AT KBLH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WINDOW.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL THEN BRING A WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING DECENT CHANCES (50-80%) FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MINRH VALUES
TODAY WILL MOSTLY FALL BETWEEN 20-30% BEFORE BRIEFLY RISING ON
FRIDAY TO 35-50% FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. OCCASIONAL
BREEZINESS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, WILL BE
COMMON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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