419
FXUS65 KPSR 121700
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO A GOOD PORTION OF ARIZONA FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN MID 70S ACROSS LOWER DESERTS.
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH TWO SEPARATE CIRCULATION CENTERS, ONE NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AND
THE OTHER ROUGHLY 1000 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. OUR REGION IS
STILL MOSTLY BEING INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED SOUTH
OF TEXAS AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER CONSENSUS SHOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH BECOMING MORE COMPACT ON FRIDAY AS BOTH CIRCULATION CENTERS
MERGE BACK INTO ONE MAIN SYSTEM. WHILE THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION ALLOWING PWATS TO
REACH THEIR PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 200% OF NORMAL ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS REACHING 5-6 G/KG AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK PV ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT STARTING MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH HI-RES CAMS
FAVORING LOCATIONS AREAS FROM PHOENIX AND TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT LOCATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA, BUT LOWER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL KEEP
THOSE AREAS FROM SEEING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN.
THE PEAK TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE EVENING. SOME AREAS WITHIN
THE PHOENIX AREA MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE, WHILE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHER RAINFALL
CHANCES AND TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
WHERE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.25". TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MAY ALSO STRUGGLE TO TOP 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON SATURDAY BEFORE CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BOUNCE BACK THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S IN PHOENIX TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FOLLOWED BY THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
OFF THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SENDING CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION INTO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS NEAR
RECORD LOW H5 HEIGHTS WELL WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
BAJA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STARTS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS
ALSO FORECAST TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE MUCH OF OUR EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
GUIDANCE HEAVILY FAVORS THE TROUGH OPENING UP ON MONDAY WITH MUCH OF
THE PV ENERGY MISSING OUR AREA TO THE NORTHWEST, WE ARE STILL LIKELY
TO HAVE A DECENT MID-LEVEL FRONT MOVE THROUGH AT SOME POINT MONDAY
NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 175-225%
OF NORMAL PWATS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT WITH LOW
LEVEL MIXING RATIOS AS HIGH AS 7 G/KG. CURRENT INDICATIONS ALSO SHOW
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO DRIVE MORE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION IN UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HAVE DOUBT ON
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE EXACT TIMING. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN
QPF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY SHOWS UP TO 0.1" FOR THE WESTERN
LOWER DESERTS, 0.25-0.50" FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS, TO AS MUCH AS 0.75-1.00" OVER THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR NOW MOSTLY
STAY ABOVE 6500' PROVIDING LITTLE CHANCE OF SNOW IN OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY STAY FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR TWO MORE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEMS EITHER IMPACTING OUR REGION OR BRUSHING BY JUST TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER UNUSUAL TIMING
AND UNCERTAINTY IN WIND SHIFTS MAY ALSO CREATE OPERATIONAL ISSUES.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION WILL
BECOME W/SW MID/LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS
BECOMES LOW BEYOND MID/LATE EVENING WITH SOME TERMINALS (I.E. KPHX)
POTENTIALLY RETAINING THE WESTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE. MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD SHRA AND ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID/HIGH CIGS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A N/NW
COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. THE
LOWEST CIGS AND BEST CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA WILL OCCUR AT KBLH LATER
FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH LIKELY WITH LIMITED OPERATIONAL IMPACTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL THEN BRING A WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING DECENT CHANCES (50-80%) FOR RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MINRH VALUES TODAY WILL
MOSTLY FALL BETWEEN 20-30% BEFORE BRIEFLY RISING ON FRIDAY TO 35-50%
FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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