422
FXUS65 KPSR 122345
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
UPDATE
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO A GOOD PORTION OF ARIZONA TOMORROW.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN MID 70S ACROSS LOWER DESERTS.
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF H5
HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 570-576 DAM. THUS TODAY'S AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS, AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
TOMORROW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY TO OUR SW, WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ONSHORE, LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THIS WILL IN TURN COOL THE
REGION DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL, SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THIS LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO OUR
REGION MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, PEAKING AT ~200% OF NORMAL WITH
PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.8-0.85". THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A WEAK
SWATH OF PVA OVER ARIZONA WITH THE CORE OF THE ENERGY MOSTLY
CONTAINED TO OUR SOUTH IN NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER, THE ENERGY
OVER ARIZONA, IN CONJUNCTION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION, WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SEE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND
EAST OF THE METRO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS STARTING EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTERN PORTIONS THE REGION WILL SEE PRECIPITATION,
HOWEVER, THE TOTAL QPF ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. MOST OF
EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.01-0.03"
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING NO RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE, EAST OF THE
METRO INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN CAN EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 0.1-0.3".
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON SATURDAY BEFORE CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BOUNCE BACK THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S IN PHOENIX TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FOLLOWED BY THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
OFF THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SENDING CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION INTO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS NEAR
RECORD LOW H5 HEIGHTS WELL WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
BAJA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STARTS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS
ALSO FORECAST TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE MUCH OF OUR EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
GUIDANCE HEAVILY FAVORS THE TROUGH OPENING UP ON MONDAY WITH MUCH OF
THE PV ENERGY MISSING OUR AREA TO THE NORTHWEST, WE ARE STILL LIKELY
TO HAVE A DECENT MID-LEVEL FRONT MOVE THROUGH AT SOME POINT MONDAY
NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 175-225%
OF NORMAL PWATS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT WITH LOW
LEVEL MIXING RATIOS AS HIGH AS 7 G/KG. CURRENT INDICATIONS ALSO SHOW
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO DRIVE MORE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION IN UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HAVE DOUBT ON
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE EXACT TIMING. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN
QPF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY SHOWS UP TO 0.1" FOR THE WESTERN
LOWER DESERTS, 0.25-0.50" FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS, TO AS MUCH AS 0.75-1.00" OVER THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR NOW MOSTLY
STAY ABOVE 6500' PROVIDING LITTLE CHANCE OF SNOW IN OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY STAY FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR TWO MORE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEMS EITHER IMPACTING OUR REGION OR BRUSHING BY JUST TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2345Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES DURING THE BACK HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTIONS MAY ALSO CREATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS, MAINLY AT KPHX WHERE W'RLY WINDS MAY HOLD FOR
LONGER THAN USUAL BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SE AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER AND MIDDLE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS
THAT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 7K FT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERS
THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE SOME GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AT TIMES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NW'RLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF WINDOWS OF VRB DIRECTIONS. VCSH SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
(~30%) AT KBLH DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BREEZY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT TIMES. LOWER AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 8K FT.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. STARTING TOMORROW, AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES (~50-80%)
ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. MINRH VALUES TODAY WILL MOSTLY FALL
BETWEEN 20-30% BEFORE BRIEFLY RISING ON FRIDAY TO 35-50% FOR AT
LEAST THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, WILL BE COMMON DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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