372
FXUS65 KPSR 131123
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
423 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA
HIGH TERRAIN.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN MID 70S ACROSS LOWER DESERTS.
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED AND FAIRLY WEAK
TROUGH. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAINLY WITHIN A 700-350MB LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK PWATS OF AROUND
0.8" MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE SLOW TO INCREASE AND WILL LARGELY HAPPEN FROM TOP DOWN
SATURATION ONCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY GETS GOING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE ENERGY MISSING OUR REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING, DISCONNECTED
FROM THE BEST MOISTURE AND ANY FORCING IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
WHICH WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON.
CAMS GENERALLY AGREE ON TWO BANDS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS FORMING
LATER THIS MORNING, ONE VERY NARROW BAND ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AND THE OTHER FROM TUCSON NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO GILA
COUNTY. BY MID THIS AFTERNOON, BOTH OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD, BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO THE ARIZONA HIGH COUNTRY.
UNFORTUNATELY, GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY BACKED OFF ANY DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA WHICH MAY LEAVE MOST PEOPLE
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO
BETWEEN 30-40% ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A 0.10". MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD FALL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX WHERE UPWARDS OF A 0.25"
IS LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS. WE ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 10% AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEAK.
THE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
IN THE EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM TODAY'S READINGS WITH HIGHS 72-74 DEGREES IN THE
PHOENIX AREA TO AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS AS THE WARMER AIR FROM THE
RIDGING FINALLY MIXES DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND QUICKLY BECOME MATURE BY SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN SYSTEM MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL IMPACT CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ALREADY OCCURRING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION. GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODEST IVT PLUME DEVELOPING WEST OF
BAJA WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO ARIZONA
BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS IVT PLUME IS LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION RESULTING IN PWATS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 0.8-0.9", OR AROUND 200% OF NORMAL LATER MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION ON
MONDAY, IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30-50KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS TO AS MUCH AS A NEAR FULL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS POTENTIALLY OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF
THIS RAIN EVENT, FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH WITH
AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 0-0.25" ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TO 0.25-0.50" INTO THE
PHOENIX AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS MORE INTO A 0.50-0.75" RANGE.
EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT COLDER, SNOW LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO MOSTLY STAY ABOVE 7000 FEET. TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT MODELS MOSTLY SHOW A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY AFTER THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CLIP THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CHANCES ARE MOST OF THE
ENERGY WILL BYPASS US TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL EASILY BE THE COOLEST WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR THIS MONTH, BUT THE NBM ONLY SHOWS READINGS FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY. LOWER DESERT FORECAST HIGHS
FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE WE SEE DRIER
AIR AND CALMER WINDS LATER NEXT WEEK, SOME RURAL DESERT AREAS MAY
SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1122Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LIGHT SHOWERS, MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS TODAY, WITH
PREVAILING VFR CIGS. BEST SHOWER CHANCES IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON (40%), WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
(10%). CIGS SHOULD LOWER THIS AFTERNOON TO AS LOW AS 6-8K FT AGL,
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME SLANTWISE VISIBILITY IMPACTS AT KPHX ON
APPROACH. MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 10K FT
OR HIGHER. E'RLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER S'RLY AROUND MIDDAY
AND THEN SW'RLY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
TO 7-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST CA
AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH NOON BEFORE FALLING
APART AND/OR FULLY SHIFTING EAST OF KBLH. A SINGLE LIGHTNING
STRIKE HAS BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THE BAND AND ADDITIONAL ROGUE
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE TS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH
CLOUD BASES STAYING MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 8K FT AGL. WINDS AT BOTH
TERMINALS WILL FAVOR A W TO NW DIRECTION MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL. MINRH VALUES TODAY WILL RISE TO 30-40% FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND LOWERS
MINRHS BACK TO 20-30%. OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND THE
ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED HUMIDITIES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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