842
FXUS65 KPSR 131701
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN MID 70S ACROSS LOWER DESERTS.
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BRING
BETTER RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED AND FAIRLY WEAK TROUGH.
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAINLY WITHIN A 700-350MB LEVEL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK PWATS OF AROUND 0.8" MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
INCREASE AND WILL LARGELY HAPPEN FROM TOP DOWN SATURATION ONCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY GETS GOING BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MISSING OUR REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS
TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING, DISCONNECTED FROM THE BEST MOISTURE AND
ANY FORCING IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WHICH WILL PEAK IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CAMS GENERALLY AGREE ON TWO BANDS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS FORMING
LATER THIS MORNING, ONE VERY NARROW BAND ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AND THE OTHER FROM TUCSON NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO GILA
COUNTY. BY MID THIS AFTERNOON, BOTH OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD, BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO THE ARIZONA HIGH COUNTRY. UNFORTUNATELY,
GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY BACKED OFF ANY DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA WHICH MAY LEAVE MOST PEOPLE WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TODAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BETWEEN 30-40% ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A 0.10". MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX WHERE UPWARDS OF A 0.25" IS LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS. WE ALSO
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
CHANCES ARE UNDER 10% AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEAK.
THE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA IN THE
EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES FROM
TODAY'S READINGS WITH HIGHS 72-74 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA TO AS
WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM FURTHER ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS AS
THE WARMER AIR FROM THE RIDGING FINALLY MIXES DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND QUICKLY BECOME MATURE BY SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN SYSTEM MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
WILL IMPACT CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM ALREADY OCCURRING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODEST IVT PLUME DEVELOPING WEST OF BAJA WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO ARIZONA BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS IVT PLUME IS LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION RESULTING IN PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 0.8-
0.9", OR AROUND 200% OF NORMAL LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION ON
MONDAY, IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30-50KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TO AS
MUCH AS A NEAR FULL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF THIS RAIN EVENT,
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 0-0.25" ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TO 0.25-0.50" INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH AVERAGE
AMOUNTS MORE INTO A 0.50-0.75" RANGE. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A BIT COLDER, SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO MOSTLY STAY ABOVE 7000
FEET. TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT MODELS
MOSTLY SHOW A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CLIP THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CHANCES ARE
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BYPASS US TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL EASILY BE THE COOLEST WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR THIS MONTH, BUT THE NBM ONLY SHOWS READINGS FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY. LOWER DESERT FORECAST HIGHS
FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE WE SEE DRIER
AIR AND CALMER WINDS LATER NEXT WEEK, SOME RURAL DESERT AREAS MAY
SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LOWERING CIGS, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND SHRA AROUND THE REGION WILL
BE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING ARRIVES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO A SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY COMPONENT BY NOON
BEFORE COMPLETING THE SWITCH TO W/SW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
GUSTS 15-20KT MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO GOOD THAT
CIGS WILL LOWER AT LEAST TO 8K FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOWER PROBABILITIES OF DECKS REACHING 6K FT AT TIMES AND IMPACTING
OPERATIONS/AAR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE A FEW SHRA WILL BE PRESENT AROUND THE REGION, PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE (LESS THAN 30% OF DIRECT
IMPACTS), THOUGH ITS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED
TS COULD AFFECT THE AIRSPACE (LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE). SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY SWITCHING BACK TO EASTERLY, THOUGH TIMING OF
THE WIND SHIFT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
EAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WELL PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MIDLEVEL CIGS AND ISOLD SHRA RAPIDLY CLEAR EASTWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A NE COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING BATCH OF
SHRA, HOWEVER DIRECTIONS SHOULD BECOME W/NW BY EARLY EVENING, THEN
MORE VARIABLE AND NEARLY CALM SATURDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL. MINRH VALUES TODAY WILL RISE TO 30-40% FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND LOWERS MINRHS BACK TO
20-30%. OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND THE ARIZONA HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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