782
FXUS65 KPSR 132120
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
134 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN MAY RECEIVE LINGERING SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, FIZZLING OUT BY THIS EVENING.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN MID 70S ACROSS LOWER DESERTS.
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE STATE, WITH PWATS STILL
LINGERING IN THE 0.7-0.8" RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE MRMS 6 HOUR RADAR QPES HAVE BEEN LACKLUSTER THUS FAR,
WITH THE IMPERIAL COUNTY AREA SEEING TOTALS BETWEEN 0.05-0.1"
FROM THIS MORNING, THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING
0.00-0.05" AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, EAST OF THE METRO, BETWEEN
0.05-0.1", WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 0.25-0.5" IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
A DRY SLOT CAN BE SEEN FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE ON SATELLITE WHICH
WILL HINDER ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, HOWEVER THE HIGHER TERRAINS COULD POTENTIALLY SQUEEZE
OUT ANOTHER 0.05-0.1" WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.
STARTING TOMORROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AND
SETTLE OVER THE DESERT SW, LEADING TO DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SATURDAYS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. MEANWHILE, SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE RIDGE
FULLY SETS OVER THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING 80 DEGREES.
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE DESERT SW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND QUICKLY BECOME MATURE BY SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN SYSTEM MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
WILL IMPACT CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM ALREADY OCCURRING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODEST IVT PLUME DEVELOPING WEST OF BAJA WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO ARIZONA BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS IVT PLUME IS LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION RESULTING IN PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 0.8-
0.9", OR AROUND 200% OF NORMAL LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION ON
MONDAY, IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30-50KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TO AS
MUCH AS A NEAR FULL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF THIS RAIN EVENT,
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 0-0.25" ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TO 0.25-0.50" INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH AVERAGE
AMOUNTS MORE INTO A 0.50-0.75" RANGE. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A BIT COLDER, SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO MOSTLY STAY ABOVE 7000
FEET. TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT MODELS
MOSTLY SHOW A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CLIP THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CHANCES ARE
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BYPASS US TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL EASILY BE THE COOLEST WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR THIS MONTH, BUT THE NBM ONLY SHOWS READINGS FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY. LOWER DESERT FORECAST HIGHS
FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE WE SEE DRIER
AIR AND CALMER WINDS LATER NEXT WEEK, SOME RURAL DESERT AREAS MAY
SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LOWERING CIGS, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND SHRA AROUND THE REGION WILL
BE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING ARRIVES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO A SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY COMPONENT BY NOON
BEFORE COMPLETING THE SWITCH TO W/SW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
GUSTS 15-20KT MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO GOOD THAT
CIGS WILL LOWER AT LEAST TO 8K FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOWER PROBABILITIES OF DECKS REACHING 6K FT AT TIMES AND IMPACTING
OPERATIONS/AAR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE A FEW SHRA WILL BE PRESENT AROUND THE REGION, PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE (LESS THAN 30% OF DIRECT
IMPACTS), THOUGH ITS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED
TS COULD AFFECT THE AIRSPACE (LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE). SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY SWITCHING BACK TO EASTERLY, THOUGH TIMING OF
THE WIND SHIFT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
EAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WELL PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MIDLEVEL CIGS AND ISOLD SHRA RAPIDLY CLEAR EASTWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A NE COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING BATCH OF
SHRA, HOWEVER DIRECTIONS SHOULD BECOME W/NW BY EARLY EVENING, THEN
MORE VARIABLE AND NEARLY CALM SATURDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THE REGION EXPERIENCED TODAY HAS MOSTLY DIED OUT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN DISTRICTS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOOK TO BE DONE BY THIS
EVENING. MINRH VALUES TODAY HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 30-40% FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BUT WILL DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MINRHS BACK TO 20-30%.
OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED
HUMIDITIES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18 FIRE
WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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